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Brandon Tew's avatar

Looking at signs for years with Fried I think he used to just cut his 4s. Lots of 1 signs with cut fastballs, but the more I watch him in 2024 and now 2025 I think he is making it more of a cutter now as you mentioned.

I wonder if he cues cutter or just leans into the natural supination he has. I also wonder if the “true” 4s has a different grip or orientation on it. Might have to do some digging! But cool tweak noticed Luís Severino will have his catcher setup outside to OHH so he can back door the sweeper. Curious if Fried does the same thing and tries to zone it away.

Almost the idea of it starts so far off the plate it’s harder to barrel or pull the trigger on??? 🤔

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Lance Brozdowski's avatar

Yep, he definitely cuts his four-seam. Unsure if I made it clear above, but I was surprised that he seemed to be throwing a *true* four-seam this year. I always just assumed guys like that didn't really have a shot to get to arm-side four-seamers. The shape isn't great, but I think I like the utility of the idea. I would bet, as you said, that he's doing something different with the ball for the true 4S.

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Brandon Tew's avatar

Oh you made it clear sorry if I blurred that. I was just more surprised as well he’s getting the horizontal to be neutral almost. Same thing did not realize guys like him could get to that shape really cool observation. I wonder if more lefties who cut the ball like him will try to figure this out. Gives you what amounts to 3 fastball shapes but tighter triangle.

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pb's avatar

Great stuff as always, Lance.

I see the diagonal dotted line in a lot of pitch plots, always took it to just be a reference line of 45 degrees (equal horizontal and vertical movement), but that’s not the case here with yours. Any particular reason?

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Lance Brozdowski's avatar

Ahh, that's not a reference line! It's the pitcher's arm angle.

On TJ Stats' plots, he imputes arm angle, whereas Savant directly measures it, so there's some discrepancy.

There's some info here on it: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitcher-arm-angles

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pb's avatar

Look at that! Thank you very much, makes a lot more sense.

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Garrett's avatar

Is there anything to Mahle ramping up his fastball velo 2-3 mph DURING the ABs? Every fastball was faster than the last one and would ramp down to 90-91 for the next hitter. Good plan, desperate plan, random variance, something else?

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Lance Brozdowski's avatar

Great observation, looks like it's a two-strike thing...

Non 2 strikes: 91.3 mph

2 strikes: 92.8 mph

I don't have average 2K vs n2K velo differential handy, but I'd bet it's below 1 mph, so this feels distinct.

The interesting part is that he's not changing location between those situations? So it's not like he's trying to dot the pitch at the lower velocity?

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