The Reinvention of Max Fried. Knack's Kick-Changeup

Max Fried, Tyler Mahle, Landon Knack, Quinn Preister

• Yankees Max Fried has overhauled his righty approach. I mentioned the sinker tweak when he made his Yankees debut, but there was more under the hood. He’s throwing a true four-seam fastball with arm-side movement alongside the primary fastball he threw last year, which is a cutter shape tagged as a four-seamer (confusing, I know). In every one of his starts, he has a noticeable cluster of fastballs that move arm-side with separation from his normal fastball (see picture below). The shape with arm-side has been located more up in the zone than the regular cutter shape, further confirming it’s a different pitch. 🗽

  • The Yankees also appear to have taken away the 2 slider shapes he was throwing last season to righties (~10% usage combined in the previous year). Instead, he’s throwing his sweeper more, which is odd given the taboo nature of sweepers to opposite-handed hitters. He’s tracking for the highest strikeout rate of his career at ~27%. His changes feel impactful and sustainable. His mid-3s ERA projection feels light at the moment. Buy or Sell: top 12 pitcher in baseball rest of season?

Max Fried’s pitch plot from last night’s game. Notice the separation between the two green circles and the corresponding shapes. (Credit: TJ Stats)

• Rangers Tyler Mahle is having a strong start to the season (19.2 IP, 21 K, 9 BB, 0.92 ERA, 3.59 xFIP). He tweaked his slider from last year. It’s the same velocity but gained 3” vertical break (less drop) and lost 3” glove-side movement (less sweep). The shape doesn’t look better, and the swinging-strike rate is down to 5%—not great. He’s surviving on fastball swinging-strike rate, which has jumped from 6% in 2023-2024 to righties to 18% this season. 🤠

  • The only reason for the fastball working so well is his precision. He’s throwing to the same location versus lefties and righties—glove-side up (shown below). FanGraphs Location+ has him at a 116 (plus command). The fastball is a bit more elevated in the zone compared to last year, but that doesn’t seem like a valid reason for this big of a whiff jump. I don’t see enough reason to assume he’s now a mid-3s ERA pitcher. He’ll likely correct back to more league-average performance (~4 ERA). 2021 Mahle was the best iteration of the righty, but he sat 94 mph that season.

• Dodgers Landon Knack tweaked his changeup late last season. The pitch was 84 mph with 14” vertical break and 9” arm-side movement for most of the year. On September 29th last season, he flipped the orientation and added a spike (below). The pitch went to 5” vertical break and 11” arm-side movement at the same velocity. This season, his velocity on the offering is up to 85 mph with just 3” vertical break and 15” arm-side movement (more drop and more run). FanGraphs Stuff+ upgraded the pitch from a 94 to a 114, a below-average to plus pitch. 🖖

  • The tweak hasn’t produced results versus left-handed hitters as I would’ve expected. His swinging strike is still a mediocre 10% this season. Against righties, where he traded some slider usage for right-right changeup usage (although he didn’t throw any last night), his swinging-strike rate is up marginally. He feels like a reliever long-term. I’m just not sure the stuff is good enough or the command is precise enough to warrant a 5th starter spot in an (eventually) healthy Dodgers rotation.

Not the ideal picture for comparison, but notice how his ring finger crossed a seam in 2024 and is on the leather in 2025 (orientation change). Then notice the spiked middle finger in 2025.

• Brewers Quinn Priester now has a pair of relatively clean outings for the wounded Brewers. He’s an interesting example of teams applying philosophies to a pitcher with a lot of options but no clear plus pitch. Most of this can be seen through his lefty approach. With the Pirates early last year, he threw 5 pitches 15%+, revolving mostly around sinkers and changeups. The Red Sox turfed the four-seam he was throwing at the end of the season when they acquired him. Aligning with their MO, Priester embraced more of a true cutter shape around 92 mph. The Brewers, since acquiring him, have mostly accepted the Red Sox philosophies and throttled the cutter even more. All this playing around, and I’m still not sure he’s figured it out. 🍺

  • Priester doesn’t seem to possess the ability to create big movement, working almost solely off shapes gathered around the center of a pitch plot. He’s also really never been in the zone, feasting in the shadows and trying to generate chase, which he doesn’t do exceptionally well. His peripherals aren’t great, walking a lot of batters relative to how many he’s striking out. He’s still just 24, but I struggle to see where the upside lies, despite multiple smart orgs taking a gamble.