Hey Lance - you talked about this above with Henderson & in your Weird Relievers video too (I believe there in reference to JAF), but when it comes to high-spin efficiency guys, why are we worried so much about their movement? Is it just that their ability to convert spin into movement translates mostly into vertical, not horizontal movement?
Unsure I understand the full extent of the question here. "Worried" as in we don't like spin efficiency? I think it's really more that we need to understand what the pitcher is capable of given the spin efficiency. Generally guys who are higher spin eff (94%+) are going to be limited in shapes, but usually with velo have strong fastball shapes.
And then in that like 86-93% window is where you get the fun combo guys who can still get to good fastball shapes but also, depending on their tendencies, get to hard breaker shapes with movement.
It's not a knock on Henderson, it's just clear to me that watching his righty approach and results will be important given the changeup-first approach
No, this is exactly it - thank you. I had sort of thought as high-efficiency spin as like an unqualified good, but reading/watching more and more you've outlined the idea that it has drawbacks, namely limiting shape as you mention. Appreciate the reply!
Is Shota a possible comp/upside projection for Henderson, except L vs R and splitter vs change as primary 2ndary? Smaller guys with similar FA velo and good control. Shota FA vaa 4.13, LoHend 4.11, vert release 5.4 to 5.2, extension 6.3 to 6.1. Maybe it’s just the fastball but that comp jumped to mind.
Yeah, it's not bad, I just generally don't love comparing lefties to righties because of the angle difference. And Shota's fastball shape is better than Henderson's by a decent bit IMO. There's a better comp for Henderson out there, I just have to think through all the short righties haha
Hey Lance - you talked about this above with Henderson & in your Weird Relievers video too (I believe there in reference to JAF), but when it comes to high-spin efficiency guys, why are we worried so much about their movement? Is it just that their ability to convert spin into movement translates mostly into vertical, not horizontal movement?
Unsure I understand the full extent of the question here. "Worried" as in we don't like spin efficiency? I think it's really more that we need to understand what the pitcher is capable of given the spin efficiency. Generally guys who are higher spin eff (94%+) are going to be limited in shapes, but usually with velo have strong fastball shapes.
And then in that like 86-93% window is where you get the fun combo guys who can still get to good fastball shapes but also, depending on their tendencies, get to hard breaker shapes with movement.
It's not a knock on Henderson, it's just clear to me that watching his righty approach and results will be important given the changeup-first approach
No, this is exactly it - thank you. I had sort of thought as high-efficiency spin as like an unqualified good, but reading/watching more and more you've outlined the idea that it has drawbacks, namely limiting shape as you mention. Appreciate the reply!
Hey Lance,
Is Shota a possible comp/upside projection for Henderson, except L vs R and splitter vs change as primary 2ndary? Smaller guys with similar FA velo and good control. Shota FA vaa 4.13, LoHend 4.11, vert release 5.4 to 5.2, extension 6.3 to 6.1. Maybe it’s just the fastball but that comp jumped to mind.
Yeah, it's not bad, I just generally don't love comparing lefties to righties because of the angle difference. And Shota's fastball shape is better than Henderson's by a decent bit IMO. There's a better comp for Henderson out there, I just have to think through all the short righties haha