First, great stuff man, love getting such a focused breakdown on just the pitching element.
Yankees fan, so the Rodon bit is what’s on my mind. Ordinarily I’m not as bullish on the sinker as seems to be prevailing mood in baseball these days (especially for the Yankees because our infield defense can be, uh…questionable), but I think it’s a pretty good idea for Rodon.
His huge issue the last couple seasons has been the conflict between his self-image as a power pitcher who can blow batters away with pure overwhelming “stuff,” and the post-injury and age reality that his 4-seam is now middle of the road at best. So adding a fastball variant with some movement seems a really prudent option for him to have.
The big question to me though is: will he develop the confidence to use it in high-leverage situations when his gut instinct seems to be to blast a high fastball to get the swing and miss. Is he mentally ready to accept a lower K-rate in exchange for giving the Yankees more outs and innings? It’s never really his arm I’ve worried about, it’s always his head. Something really interesting to watch play out this year (to me).
The central thing I would take away from the sinker that I think a lot of people miss is that when you can get this much drop on the pitch, aka, it approaches the zone super steep, it becomes more platoon neutral. Aka, you can use it vs lefties and righties without a massive penalty. This is why Holmes and Elder can use their sinkers and they don't suck. And why Holmes today, even with a 4S is still using his sinker to lefties more.
So for Rodon, he's using it to lefties, but I actually think as he builds confidence, this can be a great righty pitch as well.
On your last point, that's very soft skill stuff I enjoy thinking about, but I usually leave out of this substack (always happy to discuss it in the comments). I can't find it right now, but somebody on the Yankees beat talked about how Rodon mentioned he needed to be more diverse in his mix or something. So he seems conscious of it? Constant battle of saying "hey, I succeeded with this last year, why change" and "I need to change to stay ahead"
Oh yeah, I respect your approach is data-driven — that last bit was just meant to be a comment section musing (I’m killing time over lunch), but I appreciate you giving thoughts on it anyway. The usage mix will become a hard stat to track over the course of the year though — and if it’s something that becomes relevant down the road (I suspect it will), I look forward to reading your thoughts on it.
Agree very much with you re: the platoon neutral benefit of the sinker. I don’t think it worked out for Holmes a lot of the time — at least not last year — but that usually seemed a command issue, not one with the pitch itself.
Usage tracking can be super tricky, yeah. Especially because of the variables like feel on a given day, lineup, lineup approach to said mix early. But I love thinking about that stuff, will try to incorporate here when I can
Great stuff Lance. One question (forgive me if you've answered this previously): When you say someone "has a new slider", should we read that as "permanent"? Understanding that we're all imperfect beings, I would assume that any given day a pitch might move differently. So is that factored in? i.e. when you say "new", you've accounted for those subtle differences?
Yep! I'm usually cautious with assuming something has changed or is "new" without a high level of confidence that it's materially different or player quotes from postgame if a reporter asks.
In this Gore case, I have info that he did change the grip/orientation of his slider, and wrote it more confidently given that info. We'll probably need another start or two before I find video/images of the change.
In a case where I don't have info or I'm slightly more uncertain as to whether it's new, I'll write it less confidently. Good question!
As to whether "new" means permanent is a tougher question, as you suggest. If something is new, I proceed with the expectation that it is there to stay and update my priors as new info comes in. An example is George Kirby throwing a cutter last year for 2 starts and then not throwing the pitch again rest of season.
Usage is more variable and based on opponent. I generally write those with a bit more caution, just trying to point out something interesting, but there are still levels to that. I'm pretty confident, for example, that Crochet will be throwing his cutter to righties more than his four-seam this season. As to whether Webb will throw 30% to lefties or revert to 15%? Unsure.
First, great stuff man, love getting such a focused breakdown on just the pitching element.
Yankees fan, so the Rodon bit is what’s on my mind. Ordinarily I’m not as bullish on the sinker as seems to be prevailing mood in baseball these days (especially for the Yankees because our infield defense can be, uh…questionable), but I think it’s a pretty good idea for Rodon.
His huge issue the last couple seasons has been the conflict between his self-image as a power pitcher who can blow batters away with pure overwhelming “stuff,” and the post-injury and age reality that his 4-seam is now middle of the road at best. So adding a fastball variant with some movement seems a really prudent option for him to have.
The big question to me though is: will he develop the confidence to use it in high-leverage situations when his gut instinct seems to be to blast a high fastball to get the swing and miss. Is he mentally ready to accept a lower K-rate in exchange for giving the Yankees more outs and innings? It’s never really his arm I’ve worried about, it’s always his head. Something really interesting to watch play out this year (to me).
The central thing I would take away from the sinker that I think a lot of people miss is that when you can get this much drop on the pitch, aka, it approaches the zone super steep, it becomes more platoon neutral. Aka, you can use it vs lefties and righties without a massive penalty. This is why Holmes and Elder can use their sinkers and they don't suck. And why Holmes today, even with a 4S is still using his sinker to lefties more.
So for Rodon, he's using it to lefties, but I actually think as he builds confidence, this can be a great righty pitch as well.
On your last point, that's very soft skill stuff I enjoy thinking about, but I usually leave out of this substack (always happy to discuss it in the comments). I can't find it right now, but somebody on the Yankees beat talked about how Rodon mentioned he needed to be more diverse in his mix or something. So he seems conscious of it? Constant battle of saying "hey, I succeeded with this last year, why change" and "I need to change to stay ahead"
Oh yeah, I respect your approach is data-driven — that last bit was just meant to be a comment section musing (I’m killing time over lunch), but I appreciate you giving thoughts on it anyway. The usage mix will become a hard stat to track over the course of the year though — and if it’s something that becomes relevant down the road (I suspect it will), I look forward to reading your thoughts on it.
Agree very much with you re: the platoon neutral benefit of the sinker. I don’t think it worked out for Holmes a lot of the time — at least not last year — but that usually seemed a command issue, not one with the pitch itself.
Always appreciate the musings! Thanks for reading
Usage tracking can be super tricky, yeah. Especially because of the variables like feel on a given day, lineup, lineup approach to said mix early. But I love thinking about that stuff, will try to incorporate here when I can
Great stuff Lance. Looking forward to your posts throughout the season.
Thanks! Excited to do these again
So pumped these are back. Happy baseball season Lance.
Me too! Happy Opening Weekend!
Great stuff Lance. One question (forgive me if you've answered this previously): When you say someone "has a new slider", should we read that as "permanent"? Understanding that we're all imperfect beings, I would assume that any given day a pitch might move differently. So is that factored in? i.e. when you say "new", you've accounted for those subtle differences?
Yep! I'm usually cautious with assuming something has changed or is "new" without a high level of confidence that it's materially different or player quotes from postgame if a reporter asks.
In this Gore case, I have info that he did change the grip/orientation of his slider, and wrote it more confidently given that info. We'll probably need another start or two before I find video/images of the change.
In a case where I don't have info or I'm slightly more uncertain as to whether it's new, I'll write it less confidently. Good question!
As to whether "new" means permanent is a tougher question, as you suggest. If something is new, I proceed with the expectation that it is there to stay and update my priors as new info comes in. An example is George Kirby throwing a cutter last year for 2 starts and then not throwing the pitch again rest of season.
Usage is more variable and based on opponent. I generally write those with a bit more caution, just trying to point out something interesting, but there are still levels to that. I'm pretty confident, for example, that Crochet will be throwing his cutter to righties more than his four-seam this season. As to whether Webb will throw 30% to lefties or revert to 15%? Unsure.
Hope that helps!