Zack Wheeler's Odd Movement Change. Michael Grove's New Cutter
Zack Wheeler, Reese Olson, Jose Berrios, Michael Grove
Phillies Zack Wheeler spun a gem versus the White Sox. There isn’t much dramatically different with his approach this season. Less four-seam and cutter to lefties, replaced by reviving his splitter. To righties, things are pretty identical, ~5% splitters instead of curves, and he’s decimating them—17% swinging strike versus with a .176 xSLG. I don’t see any big location change, some more elevated four-seamers. 👑
One oddity I can’t figure out is that everything in his repertoire is moving arm-side more this season. His four-seam has 4” more arm-side movement, sinker added 2.5” arm-side, sweeper has 2” less sweep (less sweep means more arm-side). His release height is down barely 1”, no extension or apparent release change (which is all we have to infer something biomechanically changed). But I do think it’s possible that something changed in the body that’s affecting ball flight, and it could be affecting performance. It’s tough to tell how it’s helping or why.
Tigers Reese Olson has backed off his four-seam to righties. Usage down from 17% to 9%. Sinker and changeup have both ticked up ~3 percentage points as a result. Backing off the four-seam made sense, given it allowed the highest xSLG to righties in his mix last season. But not throwing it as much may have some effect on his sinker’s contact quality which has spiked up to a .488 xSLG (gave up 2 doubles on it yesterday). Perhaps hitters are not respecting the outer third of the plate? 🐅
No notable location changes in anything he’s throwing. My angle would be to lower his sinker target, forcing it down in the zone more, given it’s mainly middle of the plate with decent overlap between that location and where he allows damage. See sinker plots below.
Blue Jays Jose Berrios has a new cutter. It’s 91 mph with 12” vertical break and 2” sweep, Driveline Stuff+ of 94, nothing special. He’s only thrown 1 each of his last 2 starts, threw 6 against the Mariners 3 starts ago. He’s really backing off his changeup to righties, usage down from 12% to 5%, throwing more slurve instead. He’s also cut his four-seam usage in half to lefties compared to last season, 27% to 13%. 🇨🇦
When he does throw the four-seam it’s really elevated, which I think is the correct way to utilize the pitch. He’s getting a bit lucky versus lefties right now, but their ground-ball rate against him is up 20 percentage points because he’s throwing them more sinker. He’s stranded nearly ever runner than has gotten on against him. But I don’t see much reason to believe that he’s not going to post something in the 3.60-3.80 window for ERA again across a full season.
Dodgers Michael Grove has a new cutter this season. It’s a pretty interesting pitch. 92.5 mph with 13” vertical break and 4” sweep. Harder, with more lift and more sweep than the average cutter. Driveline Stuff+ has it at 115, his best pitch. It has replaced his four-seam, which allowed a .733 xSLG behind in the count to righties last season. ⛰️
He’s also throttled his sinker usage from 3% last year to 18% this year and is throwing his slider more. He’s a reliever now who should regress to positive results soon with a 2.70 FIP next to a 6.75 ERA. I wonder whether the Dodgers ever start him this year. I’d be intrigued to see the cutter-slider-sinker combo work multiple times through an order. You can see the new cutter below compared to his old four-seam grip. Appears like they just tightened up his fingers on the ball, I don’t think there’s a seam orientation change there, but there could be a different cue in throwing the pitch.
