The Yankees Pitch Lab is Cookin'. Changeup Notes on Yarbrough, Taillon, Morton
Ryan Yarbrough, Jameson Taillon, Charlie Morton
Yankees Ryan Yarbrough made a subtle orientation tweak to his changeup, and the pitch has been exceptional. It has 4” less vertical break (more drop) and 2” more arm-side movement at the same velocity. As shown below, the Yankees have changed the orientation of the ball slightly in his hand. He’s now throwing the pitch 32% to righties in May, up from 19% in April (~24% usage last season). The swinging-strike rate on the pitch to righties has ballooned from 13% last year to 20% this year (15% is average). 🗽
Apart from the changeup tweak, Yarbrough is relying more on his cutter in early count situations. He’s throwing 36% cutters to righties in the first or second pitch of an at-bat compared to just 16% last season. The pitch is missing virtually no bats but has not allowed a barrel this season. He’s also throwing the cutter more up-in compared to purely top rail last year. The Yankees are the thought leaders on orientation optimization (Fernando Cruz, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luke Weaver). Although this Yarbrough’s is subtle, it’s been impactful. He has a 3.06 ERA on the season after crushing the Angels (6 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 7 K).
Cubs Jameson Taillon is throwing more changeups to left-handed hitters. He used the pitch a season-high 38% to lefties yesterday against the Rockies. In his last 4 starts, he’s used the pitch 25% to lefties, nearly double his usage from his first 8 starts of the season. He’s also using a kick change variation compared to last year (shown below). It is 2 mph slower than his 2024 changeup but has 2” less vertical break (more drop) and 2” more arm-side movement. FanGraphs Stuff+ has elevated the pitch from a 77 Stuff+ to a 94 this year. Taillon’s changeup is generating far more chase and whiff compared to his curveball to lefties this year, and he’s had a horrid 23% barrel rate to lefties in May. Embracing the changeup makes sense, even with a barrel allowed on it today, when he tried to double up on Mickey Moniak. 🐻
Orioles Charlie Morton flipped to a kick-changeup in his May 14 relief appearance. He threw it 16% to lefties yesterday (see release below). Compared to the changeup he threw in April, this kick-changeup is averaging ~1.5” less vertical break (more drop) and 5” less arm-side movement with ~300 fewer rpm. The other notable change for Morton compared to his disastrous April is that he’s not hunting the elevation of his four-seam fastball aggressively, which I talked about here. His four-seamer to both lefties and righties is centered over the zone more deliberately in May compared to April. 🤷♂️
As a result of the fastball location change and his curveball being more controlled, Morton’s zone rate has crept back to more what it looked like in 2024 from a strikes perspective. It’s hard to get much worse than Morton’s April. How frisky are you feeling? Do you want to take the under on a sub-4.50 ERA rest of season? It can’t get much worse than it’s been … right … right?!
O's fan so have been paying particular attention to Morton. In the depth of his struggles, I took a deeper look and noticed the added vert on his 4s, coupled with the change in location you noted. Tweaks to the fastball were the only real delta from last year (setting command aside). Interestingly, xwOBA and whiff rates on the 4s both got better this year (this look was admittedly a couple weeks ago, may have changed).
Command was obviously brutal but the curveball didn't seem to be any more up in the zone (locations didn't seem to get much more hittable), but damage against it was obviously through the roof. Led me to thinking the four-seam/curve tunnel may have actually been lost by bringing the fastball up in the zone and creating more separation. Fastball locations coming back down and effectiveness going back up is really interesting to me, but certainly could be confirmation bias.