Fernando Cruz Got Even Better?! Does Jack Leiter Have Command?
Fernando Cruz, Jack Leiter, Ben Brown, Logan Allen
Yankees Fernando Cruz added a sinker, reworked his slider, and moved over 1 foot toward the third base side of the rubber. I’m a bit surprised the sinker grades out as average in FanGraphs Stuff+ model, it’s 93 mph with 14” vertical break and 14” arm-side movement, basically a dead-zone four-seamer. He’s throwing it 26% to righties, with his four-seamer down to 9%. His four-seam hung around 32% last season. Cruz’s slider is more of a sweeper than a cutter this year. Velo dropped 6 mph, it lost 6” vertical break (dropping more), and added 3” sweep. It’s now a peripheral pitch and one I’m not sure he needs. From the pictures below, it looks like they very subtly moved him inside the horseshoe, where a standard sweeper usually lives.
His splitter usage is up as well. It jumped from 43% to 61% against lefties and from 41% to 54% against righties. His overall results look amazing. He’s allowing fewer barrels, walks are down—despite the increase in splitter usage—and strikeouts are up. Cruz is projected as a top-40 RP rest of season. He’s more of a top 20 guy for me.
Rangers Jack Leiter goes 6 IP, 2 H, ER, 3 BB, 5 K against the Rockies after struggling since coming off the IL. He holds a 0% K-BB versus both lefties and righties (13% is average). More damage has been allowed to lefties (Cal Raleigh has done most of that damage). I still like Leiter’s stuff, but I think he’s too aggressive in zone. He seems unable to keep his sinker away from middle against either handedness of hitter, versus lefties in particular. The usage can come down from the mid-20%’s in counts where he’s even or ahead. The outer-third game he’s playing with his four-seam and slider to righties is very Dodgers-esque. He’s also pitching backwards, throwing his four-seamer more in two-strike counts than his slider, and his slider 40%+ in the first or second pitch of an at-bat.
There’s a general lack of swing-miss here, mostly due to the aggressive nature of his approach. I’m perplexed that his walk rate is 11% given that aggression. I was bullish on Leiter entering the season, especially with the additions of his kick-changeup, which has been good to lefties, and his sinker. His profile is more control over command, and I wonder if I put too much stock in the reverse. This profile can figure it out, but I struggle to see that being an in-season thing. I still think the best version of Leiter to lefties includes a cutter, which would open up his mix considerably to the handedness he’s struggled more against in the majors. A 4.64 ERA projection per ATC on FanGraphs feels a bit pessimistic. If he can hold his barrel rate around 8%, I think the under is pretty doable, but it comes with minimal strikeout upside.
Cubs Ben Brown might have a new changeup. He’s only thrown 5 over his last 3 outings, but the pitch is down 3 mph, has 4” less vertical break (is dropping more), with 2” arm-side movement, and about 500 less rpms than the changeup he threw in April. It’s an interesting wrinkle given his K-BB against lefties has soared from 14% to 26% this season on the back of more four-seam fastballs. He doesn’t need the changeup, but it feels natural to anticipate the pitch clawing back some usage as the season progresses. And the new shape looks great, despite him spraying the last 3 he’s thrown in game.
Guardians Logan Allen’s slot is lower, and he shifted over toward the first-base side of the rubber. Allen’s arm angle is down from 45° last year to 32° this year, one of the largest slot drops this season. His sinker is 2 mph slower than last year and it has 6” less vertical break (dropping more), while his changeup is actually up 1 mph and has 2.5” more vertical break and 4” more arm-side movement. His changeup grip looks pretty similar compared to 2024. Below is his 2025 sinker grip. I, unfortunately, can’t find his 2024 sinker to compare (he didn’t throw it much).
The sinker is being used a bunch more to lefties, who crushed him last year. Usage is up from 14% to 29%, acting as his primary offering, while his four-seam usage has been cut in half. Fun tweaks to try and get Allen back to league average after a rough 2024. Projections have him around a 4.30-4.60, which feels appropriate.
Did Brown also add a cutter?