What's Up With Max Fried? Michael King's Gem
Max Fried, Michael King, Jake Irvin, Albert Suarez
Released a new video yesterday on Jack Leiter, if you’re interested in learning more about one of my favorite MiLB arms before his debut. YouTube Link
Braves Max Fried isn’t throwing much four-seam away to righties anymore. Heatmap below. Both the swing rate and swing-miss on his curveball are down 10-15 percentage points. I wonder if that backdoor righty fastball he threw last year helped the curveball survive at 73 mph? Only issue with that take is that his new sweeper is performing well, and I would assume the old outer-third fastball would help that pitch succeed as well.
Righty swing rate on his fastball has jumped from 40% last year to 54% this year. Tough to find signs of tipping, but swing rate is probably a good place to start. Could also just be that the four-seam location is too predictable now and that’s generating more swings? Or even more simple: he’s just been behind more hitters.
Padres Michael King is throwing more four-seam to righties this season, usage from 18% to 33%. It’s now being thrown more than his sinker to righties (sinker still dominates behind-in-count usage). He’s going away much more with the pitch and not elevating as much as he did late last year, heatmap below. I wonder if this is a conscious change to help the new gyro slider he’s occasionally throwing deep count to righties? It maybe helps the sweeper as well, but we don’t see a whiff jump there. His velo is still down 2-3 mph from when he was a starter late last season, if that eventually bounces back, it’s wheels up.
Nationals Jake Irvin has a new cutter. It’s 90 mph with 7.5” vertical break and <1” sweep. This is exactly what an average right-handed cutter looks like (102 Driveline Stuff+). Lefties had an expected SLG of .500+ in the second half last year, so this is a counter that. He moved almost all of his lefty sinker usage over to this cutter. Problem is… it’s not really working (so far)? xSLG over .900 on 8 balls in play. Lefties are covering it on the inner third.
You can see his change in lefty four-seam location to accommodate the cutter below. Curious to see what happens here. My guess: he moves the cutter to the outer third to lefties and puts the four-seam up in zone, a la Jameson Taillon.
Orioles Albert Suarez is an odd pitcher. Well-above-average release height up at 6.4’, but ~16-17” vertical break is average for that release at 96 mph. Driveline Stuff+ of just 91, I think it wants more vertical break. He threw it 80% to left-handed hitters yesterday, with pristine command at the top of the zone. To righties, he was 50% fastball and 40% cutter. It’s average cutter shape at 88 mph. Driveline Stuff+ of just 73, I think it’s downgrading it because of the high release. Usage peaks behind-in-count to righties for contact neutralizing purposes, location is pinpointed away. I see him as an average shapes guy from a high release with above-average command on these two pitches. Orioles are an SP factory.