Tyler Glasnow's Sinker. Shota Imanaga's fastball. Zack Wheeler's Splitter

Shota Imanaga, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Glasnow

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We’re still working with small samples in spring, so I’m trying to be mindful of everything we’re seeing that’s new or has changed below. Use the below to give you something to keep an eye on come Opening Day.

• Dodgers Tyler Glasnow has a new sinker. He’s only thrown 4 of them per the data I have, but the shape is interesting. It’s 97.5 mph with 13” vertical break and 11” arm-side movement. It’s the only thing in his repertoire with >2” arm or glove-side movement. Extremely tough to find a comp here given his extension and release height. It’s maybe comparable to Adbert Alzolay’s sinker, but have to add 2 mph and almost a foot of extension. Curious to see how this plays. I imagine it’s solely a right-handed weapon to give him something hard and inside. He’s thrown all 4 sinkers in zone this spring and gotten 2 whiffs. Could be a deadly wrinkle to his mix. 🥵

• Cubs Shota Imanaga’s fastball vertical break is down slightly from the World Baseball Classic. In spring so far, the pitch has averaged 93 mph with 18-19” vertical break and 9” arm-side from a 5.5’ release height. In the WBC, the pitch had 21” vertical break and 7-8” arm-side from a 5.6’ release at 94-95 mph. The present shape is still about 3” more vertical than the average four-seam for his release, but the lower vertical break will hurt the grade of the offering (still likely to be well above average). His velocity being down slightly is fair given the longer outings now and adrenaline of the WBC.

  • His performance has been stellar regardless of this shape difference (19:2 K:BB ratio). Could his developing feel for the MLB ball and locations be impacting this? I imagine the Cubs are aware, and if their data is the same, are probably considering whether it’s just growing pains or how to get the 20”+ ride back. Something to keep an eye on come Opening Day rather than overreact to now. 🤔

• Phillies Zack Wheeler is bringing back his splitter. The 8 he’s thrown in spring have been 86.7 mph with 6-7” vertical break and 12-13” arm-side movement at 1,500 rpm. Comps well to Shelby Miller’s splitter from last season, which had a 121 FanGraphs Stuff+ last year, but note that Miller’s fastball has 3” more vertical break than Wheeler’s, which will have some Stuff+ impact because of how a splitter’s separation from the pitcher’s fastball matters.

  • Wheeler hasn’t eclipsed 3% splitter usage across a whole season since 2018. Tough to compare this split to his older split in part because Wheeler’s release height has fallen throughout his career. The lower arm slot he has now means more drop and arm-side run on this split compared to his old changeup. 🖖