Tyler Glasnow is a Sinkerballer? Ronel Blanco's Usage Change
Tyler Glasnow, Jon Gray, Ronel Blanco
Dodgers Tyler Glasnow is starting to throw his sinker more. This is a pitch he throws only to right-handed hitters. He’s used it 19% to righties in June compared to 15% in May and 1% in April. It’s sat above 24% usage to righties in each of his last 2 starts for the first time this season. His four-seam usage has fallen to ~25% in his past 2 starts after sitting at ~55% in April, and the contact quality has improved dramatically. His four-seam holds a .222 xSLG in June compared to .455 in May. He’s evolved into a true two-fastball pitcher to righties. 📈
His swing-miss has remained intact versus righties because his breaking balls continue to dominate. His xSLG has fallen as he’s thrown the sinker more. I think the added dimension of something hard and inside has made everything else that sits away from righties in his mix—fastball, slider, curveball—that much more impossible to hit. I thought he would throw his sinker more this year. I didn’t think it would challenge his four-seam usage, but here we are. The result is glorious.
Rangers Jon Gray has a 3.03 ERA with a 2.95 FIP after he bounced back with 6 clean innings after a 9-ER disaster versus the Mets. His success this year comes from a home run rate that he’s cut to 0.7 per 9 innings after hanging above 1.20 per 9 for his prior 6 MLB seasons. Very little is different from a usage and shapes standpoint. He’s still heavy four-seam and slider to lefties and righties after an early 2023 experiment with a sweeper. He has a .451 xSLG compared to a .301 actual slug versus righties since May 1, so perhaps some regression is afoot. 🤠
The only real change I see is versus lefties. He’s throwing his fastball down in the zone more (see heatmap below). It’s a perplexing approach that has kicked up his slider whiff rate from 28% to 43% and pulled his fastball swing-miss down from 21% to 10%. The net trade-off has been less overall swing-miss and a slightly higher xSLG. I’m curious to see if he reverts to elevated four-seam locations. Projections aren’t buying the HR rate drop. I don’t think I am either given the lack of a clear change I can buy into.
Astros Ronel Blanco is evolving. Versus righties he’s cut his changeup usage from 24% in May to just 10% in June. He’s also throwing his fastball away more (see heatmaps below). His results against righties have been stellar. Swing-miss is up from 27% to 39% and he cut his fastball’s xSLG by over 450 points comparing May to June. His fastball upstairs set up his inside changeup. Now it’s being thrown away to set up the increase in slider usage. It’s working well. 🔃
Versus lefties we see a large usage change in the number of fastballs he’s throwing. It has increased from 30% to 45% comparing May to June. His slider usage has been cut in half to just 17%. The only location difference is that his changeup is out of zone more than it was in May. The net here isn’t as strong as the improvement versus righties. His swing-miss is up slightly, but his xSLG has jumped to .565 from .344. There’s some regression nestled in here, which is clear given the 4.05 FIP alongside a 2.34 ERA. We also seea small increase in release height (~1”) and a ~2” increase in extension, suggesting he’s changed something mechanically that has hiked his arm slot higher. It doesn’t seem to be affecting his shapes at all, however. But maybe it’s connected to the change in usage. Projections have him for a ~4.30 rest of season, I’ll take the under.
