Tarik Skubal is Cutting His Fastball (a lot). Gavin Williams Has a New Cutter

Tarik Skubal, Gavin Williams, Roki Saski

• Tigers Tarik Skubal has a 50:1 strikeout-to-walk rate over his last 6 starts. He threw his four-seam 52% to righties in his first two outings and immediately pulled it down to ~30% in his subsequent 6. What replaced it almost 1:1 is his sinker, which has been thrown 22% in his 3 most recent outings, more than the 14% it was thrown in the second half last season. Skubal uses the sinker when he’s even or behind in the count, mostly inside to righties. It holds a 24% in-zone miss rate, nearly three times the average. 🐅

  • Skubal is also cutting his four-seamer a lot. In his last 4 outings, he’s averaged under 4” arm-side movement and ~92% spin efficiency. It’s the first 3 games of his career he’s been under 4” arm-side. During the second half of last season, he averaged 5.7” arm-side movement on his four-seamer with 94.5% spin efficiency. Along with this cut, the velo has jumped, averaging 1.2 mph hotter in his last 3 starts than he did in his first 5 of the year. The swing-miss on the pitch has inflated, now sitting at 44% whiff against righties over his last 3 outings, double that of the average. His 21% swinging strike rate is #1 in baseball, leading Bryan Woo by 2 percentage points—a sizeable gap (<150 thrown). I think this is the best pitcher in baseball. I wonder if the cut-four-seam is a byproduct of his higher arm angle this season.

Tarik Skubal’s sinker grip (2025)

• Guardians Gavin Williams finally had a good start! 5 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 8 K. On April 21, he started throwing a cutter. It is 93 mph with 9” vertical break and 1” arm-side movement. FanGraphs Stuff+ has it as an 89, a below-average pitch. The velo is great, but generally cutters with arm-side are disliked by models. The arm-side on Gavin’s is likely connected to how efficiently he spins his fastball (97%). The pitch feels more necessary to lefties, but he’s thrown a few to righties (~4%). 8 of the 11 cutters he’s thrown to lefties have been in 0-0 or 1-0 counts, mostly backdoor pitches. It’s acting like most pitchers’ curveballs, but Gavin’s curveball is a deep-count pitch, so he needs something else. 👍

  • His four-seamer has taken a step back versus left-handed hitters compared to last season from both a swing-miss and xwOBAcon standpoint. It’s not chewing up hitters at the top of the zone like it used to. This makes me think his cutter usage should be increased from where it is. I’d be curious what inside targets look like versus lefties to help his mostly up-away fastball (perhaps dangerous with the arm-side on the pitch). If you want a positive, his sweeper is finally thriving versus righties. He has a 32% swinging-strike rate on the pitch over his last 4 starts, up from 22% in his first 4 of the 2025 season. I still have some fastball concerns here (it’s getting crushed by righties when it leaks back to the inner half), but he’s at least back to dominating lefties with a 20% K-BB over his last 4 outings.

Gavin Williams’ backdoor cutter to Max Kepler.

• Dodgers Roki Saski got roughed up in the desert (4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K). This was another in a string of outings with length but not much else. He’s now sitting on a 4.72 ERA / 6.16 FIP. His problem is with lefties more than righties. I’m a bit surprised to see this given the success of his splitter. Only his fastball is above a 40% zone rate versus southpaws, and the chase on his slider and splitter are well below average. His intent with the pitch is mostly away, but it’s getting obliterated in the upper half of the zone (see below). This makes me wonder if he should throw the pitch down-away even more, which will generate no whiffs, but could mitigate some of the contact quality issues. He’s better, but still not great versus righties. At least there’s less four-seam damage there, and his splitter chase is much higher. 😅

  • At this point, the Dodgers have to start experimenting with other shapes. The issue with higher spin-efficiency guys like this is that you’re somewhat limited with options, especially when you need a pitch to strike. I would be curious to see what a hard slider/cutter shape in the 92-mph area does to his mix (aka, “here’s a grip, rip it as hard as possible”). He could use it versus lefties and righties. It should be in the zone more than his current sweeper and splitter, and it provides hope. A sinker could work versus righties too, even if there’s minimal shape deviation from his four-seam, it would at least cover the inner third of the plate. Give me something new, Dodgers! And quick! As one MLB analyst told me, “I think he’s just Hurston Waldrep.” Felt harsh at the time, and it’s way too early to give up, but it might be true.

Roki Sasaki’s four-seam location and barrels (2025).