The Pitcher Who Can Succeed at Coors. Do the Dodgers Dislike Elevated Fastballs?
Ryan Feltner, Landon Knack, Jon Gray
Rockies Ryan Feltner has backed off his sinker and curveball this season. Usage on both has been more than cut in half. He’s opting for more four-seam and slider instead. His overall swinging strike rate has jumped from 10% to 14% through his first 6 starts. His changeup has the best results (42% swing-miss, .250 xSLG), but his slider has the best stuff grade (Driveline Stuff+ of 115, plus pitch). Slider is 88 mph with 4” vertical break and 4” sweep, in the hybrid slider/cutter area. 🏔️
His mix overall is so contracted to the center of a pitch plot (minimal spin-induced movement) that he doesn’t have a massive cut in his Stuff+ at Coors relative to road parks. Below is his plot compared to Grayson Rodriguez to show contrast in spin-induced movement. Feltner’s changeup doesn’t run a lot and he’s cutting his fastball, but he throws everything hard which buys him some leeway on shape. 3.82 FIP for a Rockies starter in any sample is impressive. This is the kind of pitcher the Rockies should roll out in every spot of their rotation. Velo, small shapes, average command. It’s also the kind of starter I don’t think is valuable to other teams.
Dodgers Landon Knack has had a homer-filled start to his career. Everything here is below average in Driveline’s Stuff+ model (changeup: 88, slider: 93, curveball: 80) aside from his fastball, which is average (98). His fastball is 92.7 mph with 19.5” vertical break from a 5.9’ release. That’s above-average carry for his slot, but the velo pushes the overall grade back to average. He’s given up 3 home runs, all on his fastball, two of which have been middle-middle with the third up in the zone. He’s not throwing the fastball a ton (<45%), but it’s hittable—as nearly all fastballs are—when they’re middle of the zone. ☝️
It seems like the Dodgers don’t preach total elevation of four-seam fastballs that have carry much, which is curious. Among all four-seamers with 16” or greater vertical break, the Dodgers average vertical location is 5th lowest in the zone among all 30 teams. The 4 highest teams? Giants, Astros, Orioles, Rays. Knack’s fastball to righties is an ok example of this “away not up” strategy. The only defense I could think of is that they prefer to be aggressive in the zone with less than two strikes, especially with runners not on base. Their two-strike vertical location of these 16”+ four-seamers is league average, suggesting they elevate these shapes more in put-away situations. It’s an interesting strategy that I’ll have to think about more.
Rangers Jon Gray has had a strong start to the season: 32.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 2.82 FIP, with a .55 HR/9 after posting a >1.1 HR/9 in each of the last 6 years. Very little is different compared to the second half of last season where he ditched his early-season attempt at a sweeper. His slider command is strong through these first 7 games (plot below). Driveline’s Command+ has his slider at a 119 (above plus). Dotting it down-away from righties, less in zone. To lefties, I’m somewhat concerned that he’s moved his fastball more away than up, and as a result he’s lost some swing miss and the small-sample contact quality appears worse, but it hasn’t affected his results much yet. It feels like Gray has stretches like this every year, but can never maintain it for a full season. 🤠
