Strider's New Curveball. Varland's Changes. Irvin's Velo. Rodon's Cutter

Spencer Strider, Louie Varland, Cole Irvin, Carlos Rodon

Small sample on everything we’re talking about below. I’ll do my best to not overreact. All Stuff+ estimates assume the shape & velo stick.

• Spencer Strider - Strider threw 3 curveballs Saturday, all to left-handed hitters. The shape averaged out to -9” vertical break with 14” sweep at 80 mph. It had more sweep than the average right-handed curveball with comparable drop. It’s similar to Jameson Taillon’s or Bryce Miller’s curveball, but more sweep. Both those pitches come in around 110 FanGraphs Stuff+, so I’d expect it to be a notch higher.

  • Righty curveballs are released 1-2” higher than the pitcher’s four-seam on average. The average release height between Strider’s four-seam and curve on these 3 pitches was <0.5” Perhaps this was an effort to match four-seam release as much as possible for whichever grip/cue he’s using. Perhaps it was more of a blip. I still want a sinker to righties for Strider. This curveball should help versus lefties. 💫

• Louie Varland - Couple of changes here (comparing everything to when he was a starter in April-June). The cutter he had last year is now more of a slider. It fell just over 2 mph, lost 5” induced vertical break (more drop), and picked up 3” glove-side movement. Comparable to Johan Oviedo’s slider. This pitch was still tagged as a “cutter” in Statcast, but it’s more like the slider he threw last year with more velo. FanGraphs Stuff+ should be around 100-105. Speaking of that old slider (which it seemed like he called a sweeper)—it maintained velocity, lost 3” sweep and went from -2” to -9” induced vertical break. This is a pretty funky shape for the velo. It’s somewhat close to Hunter Harvey’s curve, which is only a 98 FanGraphs Stuff+.

  • His four-seam also lost 3” of arm-side movement and picked up <1” vertical break at 95-96 (slightly up from his starter velo last season). There could be some cutting of the fastball here compared to last year. Probably need more sample to tell. Shouldn’t have a considerable impact on grade. 🤷‍♂️

  • Post-publishing note: There’s a chance Varland’s “cutter” from last year is still there, it’s just very similar in shape to the newer slider, so I grouped them together. Thanks to Alex Fast for this thought. I’ll have an update soon.

• Cole Irvin - Cutter is different. Velo here jumped from 85 last year to 88 in this outing (7 pitches). The pitch picked up 4” induced vertical break in the process, which is pretty standard, he’s behind the ball more, creating more backspin, thus higher vertical break. Release spin direction changed from around 1:00 on a clock to 12:00. Shape comps to Taj Bradley’s or Cody Morris’s cutter. FanGraphs Stuff+ should come in around 105.

  • Irvin’s release height was also down slightly (1-2”), and there’s no corresponding change in extension. So perhaps there’s some lowering of his arm slot, which is backed up by some extra arm-side movement on his four-seam and sinker. Velocity was up 1-2 mph on everything else, which is going to push the Stuff+ up. Positive sign. 👍

• Carlos Rodon - Unveiled a new cutter yesterday. He threw 5 and the pitch averaged 91 mph with 9” vertical break and 2” glove-side movement. The shape comps pretty well to the cutters Jordan Montgomery and Brandon Williamson throw, who each have cutters in the 105-110 FanGraphs Stuff+ area. Rodon’s is thrown from a lower release and is 2 mph harder. I expect that his shape will grade out in the 110-115 area. It’s early, but it’s also worth noting his velocity was down just under 2 mph across the board. 👏