Spring New Pitch Alert: Volume 1
10 Pitchers Who Worked On Things This Offseason
Grayson Rodriguez - two-seam/sinker (link)
Rodriguez mentions working on a two-seam fastball this offseason but doesn’t exude confidence that he’ll bring it into the season. Although he says “two-seam” in the link above, I anticipate the shape looking more like a true sinker with some drop separation from his four-seam. GRod tends to move his fastball up-and-in when behind in the count to righties as opposed to up-away when he’s ahead. Most pitchers with one fastball can use some kind of sinker/two-seam when behind in the count to help mitigate some damage against same-handed hitters. I’d guess this two-seam/sinker sits more down-in or purely inside.
Bryce Miller - new splitter (link), sweeper tweak (link)
This one has been floating around the internet for a bit. It seems like Miller intends to shrink the release differential between his fastball, sweeper, and changeup (now splitter). He had one of the largest release differentials in baseball last season between that trio of pitches. I made a YouTube video about this adjustment if you’re interested in more.
Tarik Skubal - tinkering with slider and curveball (link)
Skubal’s slider tweak intrigues me. The pitch is currently a tight gyro shape around 87-88 mph (5” vertical, 2” glove side). It dominated left-handed hitters last season, while right-handed hitters may have been lucky (.512 SLG vs .367 xSLG). I think he could either a) add velocity and lift to the pitch, making it more cutter-like or b) add sweep to the pitch, potentially go full-on sweeper. If he takes option B, it makes the pitch less likely to be used versus right-handed hitters, putting more pressure on the changeup and curveball.
In regards to Skubal’s curveball, I would bet the angle here is just to throw it harder, which will shorten up the movement and likely increase the Stuff+. His usage right now is more to use the pitch as a strike stealer early in counts. A harder curve with a better Stuff+ grade becomes a more diverse weapon in terms of count usage.
Kodai Senga - “something” (link)
Senga didn’t tell us directly what he worked on. So all we can do is guess. Given his movement plot is pretty diverse, I’d guess he’s working on a sinker. My reasoning comes from his fastball usage decreasing as the season went on last year and the performance of the fastball being about 100 points of xSLG better versus left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters. Could be another hard breaking ball (death ball?), given his curve is more of a low-velo freeze pitch.
Cole Ragans - slider, two-seam/sinker (link)
Another sinker, this time from Cole Ragans. Lefty sinkers are not used a lot, simply because Ragans isn’t going to face a ton of left-handed hitters. Given the left-handed hitters he does face will likely be quality bats, however, I like this addition. While he threw 5 pitches versus left-handed hitters last season, none had a primary location on the inner third of the plate, where a sinker would normally sit (his changeup was close, but primarily was used below the zone for chase). If he ends up using the pitch more to right-handed hitters, I would guess that he’s killing enough vertical on it for the pitch to work. That’s the key way to use opposite-handed sinkers effectively—more drop.
Shelby Miller - bullet slider (link)
Shelby Miller added a sweeper in 2022 and a splitter last year with the Dodgers. This season it appears like he’s bridging the gap between his sweeper and fastball with a gyro slider, which should resemble a more depthy version of his 2021 cutter. The old cutter he threw sat 89 mph. If the bullet is around that territory, it will be at least an average pitch. I guess this gyro slider is a weapon versus left-handed hitters to pull down his fastball usage, which was 62% last season.
Max Meyer - slower velo two-seam/sinker (link)
Meyer likely won’t break the Marlins Opening Day rotation post Tommy John, but he’s fiddling with a slower-velo sinker aka a “really hard changeup” per the link above. This appears to be a different pitch than his regular changeup, but much more in line with the hard changeup the Marlins seem to teach like wildfire (Alcantara, Cabrera, Sixto, Eury, etc). This is another situation where I think they’re giving him something to help out versus right-handed hitters, especially given how much he cuts his fastball, which will make it a more effective offering versus left-handed hitters.
Brady Singer - four-seam, sweeper (link)
Singer hasn’t thrown a pitch that wasn’t a sinker or slider more than 8% of the time in 3 seasons. His results have been a roller coaster. I love looking for pitchers with 5.5+ ERAs that can bounce back to league average and I think Singer is one of them. He fits the mold of what the Yankees have done with countless starters—build a mix combo north-south mix based on maximizing stuff. Singer needs a lot of tweaks to get there, but throwing the four-seam and sweeper more is a step. The sweeper feels like a no-brainer to throw 30% when he’s ahead. 82 mph with 13” sweep is a better-than-average breaking ball and is the best Stuff+ pitch in his repertoire.
Ryan Weathers - two-seam/sinker (link)
Weathers presumably doesn’t have a ton of need for a sinker as a lefty, similar to Cole Ragans above. But he mentions that he’s getting really good “separation” off his four-seam and changeup, which implies to me that it could probably work against right-handed hitters for the reasons I mentioned in the Ragans blurb above.
Drew Smyly - sweeper, splitter (link)
Smyly worked at Driveline this offseason to add some depth to his mix in the form of a splitter and sweeper. He’s a pitcher who is more comfortable locating to his arm side based on his heatmaps, and as a result, he struggles to hit any glove-side part of the zone (away from lefties or inside to righties). Both of these pitches should serve as useful in the event he struggles with his two-pitch mix in-season. I don’t expect them to be heavily used out of the gate.
To me, a two-seam fastball has more vertical break than a sinker. Without seeing the movement on the pitches mentioned above, it’s hard to gauge which bucket each will fall into. As a result, I use them synonymously within this post.