Spencer Strider Concerns? Ranger Suarez's Location Adjustment
Spencer Strider, Ranger Suarez, Garrett Whitlock
Braves Spencer Strider has been struggling lately. Last 6 starts, 6.47 ERA with a 5.84 FIP, worse than his season line of 4.12 ERA with a 3.33 FIP. In those last 6 starts, the vertical break on his fastball is down from 19” to 18.2” while the velo, extension and release all remain the same. In his last 3 starts the pitch is down to 17.9” vertical break with a slight velo cut from 97 to 96.4 mph. FanGraphs Stuff+ on his fastball in his first 8 starts was 150, last 6 it’s a 140 and last 3 it’s a 135. Swing-miss down from 32% to 21%, xwOBA up from .267 to .498 in his last 3 starts.
Not sure I’m totally satisfied with the “he’s fine” angle. Small downticks in fastball variables like velo and vertical break have an effect, even if anything in the <1” or <1 mph area is noise. BUT it does make me wonder whether poor stretches from pitchers for which we have samples can (sometimes) be tied to fluctuations in stuff, especially with a consistent pitcher like Strider. Also worth noting: against >95 mph fastballs with >18” vertical break, the league went from a .376 xwOBA on contact last year to a .398 xwOBA this year, their strongest performance against that shape/velo since 2019. 👑
Phillies Ranger Suarez is on a heater. 0.90 ERA over his last 3 starts, 2.23 FIP. It’s a game of cat-and-mouse with his four-seam location to righties. Last year, he heavily concentrated the pitch up and in, damage on the pitch came when it leaked middle or away (overall: .364 xwOBA). First 4 starts of 2023, he kept his four-seam up and in, but did occasionally throw it away, damage allowed was mostly up-and-in. Last three starts, his four-seam location has been away from righties, and the damage he’s allowing away has been minimal, xwOBA down to .174.
I wonder if the change in four-seam location is helping his curveball, which he throws the most, generates the most swing-miss miss with and holds a crazy low .061 xwOBA over his last 3 starts. FanGraphs Stuff+ thinks his cutter is his best pitch, everything else is below average. But Suarez is a) a lefty, which appear to be downgraded on FanGraphs Stuff+ specifically, Driveline Baseball’s internal model thinks the cutter and sinker are both 100+ pitches and b) a locations guy, Driveline’s locations model says everything is located above average, four-seam and sinker are located >1 standard deviation above the average. 🎯
Red Sox Garret Whitlock is defying Stuff+. Both FanGraphs Stuff+ and Driveline’s internal stuff model say nothing he throws is above average. Closest to average is his sinker, which is more of a runner than a dropper. What he does have working for him is the highest extension in baseball for any pitcher with more than 20 sinkers thrown (sample of ~300 arms). Extension is something that more data-inclined coaches have preached to me only matters at the tails (or the extremes), and perhaps that’s the case here with Whitlock and something the models are missing.
Most interesting in his mix is the slider, which is something like a baby sweep, -3” vertical break with just 8” sweep. So it has more drop and about 3” less sweep than the average sweeper. Generates an insane 58% swing-miss (32% is average for sliders) and yet FanGraphs Stuff+ thinks it’s a 47 and Driveline says it’s a 71, well below average. I think in the end he’ll correct back to being worse than the 3.01 FIP pitcher his last 4 starts suggest. That’s a bet on overall Stuff outweighing what might be missed in his outlier extension. 🤷♂️