Smith-Shawver Made Some Changes. Bieber's Velocity. Bryce Miller's Split/Slider Tweaks
AJ Smith-Shawver, Shane Bieber, Bryce Miller
Small sample on everything we’re talking about below. I’ll do my best to not overreact. All Stuff+ estimates assume the shape & velo stick.
Guardians Shane Bieber’s velo looked strong in his first outing of spring. He averaged 93.8 mph on his four-seam, more than 2 ticks above his 2023 average four-seam velo. Worth noting that his extension was down 3” and his release height was up around 2.5” compared to 2023. This is perhaps connected to something mechanically he worked on at Driveline this offseason. His four-seam FanGraphs Stuff+ last year was 81. If the new velo holds, I’d expect the Stuff+ to rise back to 100. The new shape/velo he flashed on 13 pitches in this outing comps well to Ryan Pepiot and Keegan Thompson’s four-seamers, both 100-105 FanGraphs Stuff+ pitches. Velo jumped up about 1-2 mph on everything else as well. 🔥
Braves AJ Smith-Shawver has a new slider. The pitch was 85 mph last year with 5.5” induced vertical break and 3” glove-side movement. The 14 he has thrown in spring across two outings are 88 mph with 3.5” vertical break with 7” glove-side movement. The pitch is harder with more drop and sweep. Generally, we see velocity gains cause sliders to increase vertical break (less drop). We have the opposite here which is a strong combination from the perspective of a stuff model. FanGraphs Stuff+ had his slider as a 91 last season. I expect that grade to jump to 105-115.
His velo is up across the board as well in this small sample, by about 2 mph. Most notably, his fastball is averaging 96.7 mph compared to 94.5 mph last season. It has the same induced vertical break from a release that is 2.5” lower with 4” of extra extension. A recipe for a stronger four-seam grade. FanGraphs Stuff+ gave it a 90 last year, which should rise to the 110-115 area. 📈
Mariners Bryce Miller flashed an incredible splitter shape in his first spring outing. The pitch had -2” induced vertical break (iVB) with 7” arm-side movement at 83 mph. If that shape sticks—keep in mind I only have data on 3—it would be the splitter with the lowest iVB (most drop) for any splitter thrown more than 50 times with a release height above 5.4’. Although his release on these splits was 3-4” below his fastball, something he said he was trying to avoid in an interview with Seattle Sports, the shape alone might be good enough to not be an issue. Tough to gauge what the FanGraphs Stuff+ will be, I would guess it lands in the 110-120 window.
The pitch tagged as his slider last season, which was a bullet slider, was 3 mph harder (86 to 89 mph) in the 5 he threw. The shape picked up some vertical break (3”), which is standard to see as a slider increases velocity, and the difference in release between this pitch and his fastball shrunk compared to last season by ~2”. ✂️