Seth Lugo's Two Curveballs. Who is Mitchell Parker?
Seth Lugo, Tanner Bibee, Luis Gil, Mitchell Parker
Royals Seth Lugo has a new cutter and is throwing two distinct curveballs. The cutter is 91 mph with 13” vertical break and 0” horizontal. He’s mixing it in versus lefties primarily in both two-strike and non-two-strike situations 10%+. It’s a below-average cutter based on movement but works in the context of his repertoire. 👑
His two curveballs can be distinguished based on handedness. To righties, the pitch is 78 mph with -11” vertical break and 17” sweep. To lefties, the pitch is also 78 mph, but it has -16” vertical break and 15” sweep. He’s adding more drop versus left-handed hitters, creating a more vertical shape. The two shapes are so distinct based on handedness that I guess it’s two different orientations. Tough to see below, but when you toggle to looking at curveballs thrown to left-handed hitters, only the curves in the “Lefties” circle appear.
Guardians Tanner Bibee averaged his hardest slider of the season yesterday at 86.3 mph. 2 of the 3 games with his hardest average slider velocity since being promoted to MLB last year have come in his last two starts. His slider has averaged 4” vertical break, up from -1” vertical break last season (dropping less). His arm angle is down 3° from last season, which may be contributing to the shape change. Driveline Stuff+, however, sees no change in the slider shape, still near plus at 111. This is likely because the velocity-for-drop tradeoff is neutral. 💫
His fastball is down 5 percentage points in usage to both lefties and righties. His changeup usage has doubled to 16% versus righties. To lefties, he’s jumped his slider usage from 13% to 21%. He’s also throwing his four-seam inside more to lefties (see below) and it’s getting pummeled—.666 xSLG on 24 balls in play. I wonder whether he brought the fastball more inside to help set up more changeup usage away? Curious to see if he reverts to the old outer-third fastball approach.
Yankees Luis Gil is a two-true-outcomes pitcher. He’s pitched 19 innings, walked 17 batters and struck out 29. The fastball shape here is plus. 97 mph with 18” vertical break from a 5.8’ release. That’s 2” more vertical break than average for his release (dropping less) and 3 mph more velo. Driveline Stuff+ of 117. He’s zoning his fastball at a below-average rate, which is likely the main driver of the walk problems. Funniest thing is that he’s throwing the pitch 74% to left-handed hitters and generating a 37% swing-miss (22% is average). 🔥
I think there’s a cutter and more of a tight sweeper nestled within his current “slider classification.” The former being 90-91 mph with 0” sweep and the latter sitting 85-88 with 6-7” sweep. There’s just variance in both shapes and they’re blurring together, which isn’t surprising for a pitcher whose main skill is generating backspin on his four-seam (pronating). Comp here is something like Taj Bradley. If the Yankees can figure out a way to zone his fastball a bit more, would do wonders for his walk rate.
Nationals Mitchell Parker has had a strong MLB debut. 12 IP, 2 ER, 12 K against the Dodgers and Astros. Driveline Stuff+ has his four-seam as average at 100. It’s 92 mph with 17” vertical break and 4” arm-side from a 6.1’ release. That’s average vertical break from his release height. I think the most advantageous trait here is his slot. It’s extremely over the top, but his 7’ extension gets the release height down so it’s not as high as you would expect based on his arm angle. This is a bit like Alex Vesia. It’s the only way I can explain the success on the pitch so far despite a shockingly low 4% (11% is average). Could also be that the lefty splitter he throws is helping the fastball. His split has a ton of variance in shape horizontally. This could be because it’s low spin or it could be two orientations. This is a taller poor man’s Shota Imanaga. 💸