Regression for Seth Lugo? Is Jeff Hoffman Ok?
Seth Lugo, Lucas Giolito, Jeff Hoffman
Royals Seth Lugo holds a 2.65 ERA with a 4.01 xFIP across 16 starts this season, suggesting some regression is imminent. The majority of his “struggles” have come against left-handed hitters, where his whiff and barrel rates are both notably lower than 2024. He’s not throwing splitters anymore, and he’s traded some short slider usage for more sweepers (a bit taboo). There are a few subtle location changes to lefties, too. His four-seamer is now more over the plate, his sweeper is being used more away than inside, and most notably, his cutter moved off the inner rail (see below). While the cutter is getting more whiffs middle and away to lefties, the batted-ball results have lagged. This might be affecting the cutter itself, but I wonder how fewer inside pitches could affect his curveball and four-seamer, both of which have taken a step back in effectiveness this season. 👑
Lugo is a name that has bubbled to the surface in deadline talks because the Royals sit 5 games below .500. He has a player option for $15m next season that I think he might test the market on. Rest of season projections are in consensus that he’s a 4-ERA pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate and crisp walk rate. That’s roughly a top 40 pitcher on fWAR, mainly because of his projected innings total. Are you comfortable with him starting Game 3 of a playoff series for your team? I would be.
Red Sox Lucas Giolito has a 3.70 xFIP / 17% K-BB over his last 5 starts after posting a 4.69 xFIP / 11% K-BB in his previous 7 outings. There’s likely an element of settling in post-surgery (he’s sitting 94 mph, a full tick higher than earlier this year), but we also see some subtle usage changes. His four-seam to lefties has jumped from 44% to 59% in these most recent 5 outings. From a location standpoint, he’s done a much better job getting his changeup down in the zone (see below). To righties, he’s pulled down his changeup usage and pushed his slider from 26% to 36%, much of that increase coming in two-strike counts. 🧦
Giolito has had some blow-up outings this season. It’s tough to say if that’s post-injury variance or a byproduct of his mix. These big-ride four-seam arms seem to run into home run problems at times (Pivetta), and with Giolito, that’s perhaps exacerbated by his changeup’s natural lift (result: more up in the zone). Projections are pessimistic, pegging him above a 4.50 ERA. I’d take the under, but not by much. Red Sox get him for $14m next season if he’s under 140 IP this year, which feels probable.
Blue Jays Jeff Hoffman has mostly settled in after allowing 15 ER across 10 IP in May. His xFIP and K-BB look identical to last season when he posted a 2.17 ERA across 66+ innings. The main driver of his 4.58 ERA is his barrel rate jumping to 11%. This is mostly why xFIP thinks he’s fine. It assumes his HR luck will even back out. Hoffman threw his slider 33% to lefties last season. That’s down to 17% this season, as his splitter has become his more prominent offering. His slider is also being used more as a backdoor weapon against lefties, as opposed to a pure down-in whiff pitch. His righty approach remains roughly the same. 🇨🇦
I believe Hoffman will even back out into a low 3s ERA pitcher, a top 15-20 RP in MLB rest of season. My only hesitation comes from his four-seamer’s underlying performance against left-handed hitters. It carries a .619 xwOBAcon this season and is getting clipped all over the zone unless it’s pinpointed up-away (.380 is average). I wonder if the lighter slider usage is affecting the performance of this pitch in some way? He did have comparable issues with the four-seamer in 2024, but at least he was generating more whiffs. Hoffman’s four-seam zone miss to lefties last season was 25%. It’s down to 10% since June 1 this year. Something to monitor.
Love seeing notes on relievers in these roundups. I feel like they don't get enough talk in baseball media despite throwing 40% of all innings (and more in the playoffs). The smaller sample size obscures how they're pitching much more so than starters. I think it'd be awesome if you covered a reliever in each post like this.