Kris Bubic Breakout? Cristopher Sanchez's Velo. Michael Soroka's Big Changes

Kris Bubic, Cristopher Sanchez, Michael Soroka, Drew Rasmussen

• Royals Kris Bubic lowered his slot. His extension and release height were both down 2” in his outing. We usually see release heights rise with lower extension, so the opposite of that implies his slot is lower. The encouraging thing is that he picked up 1” vertical break from this lower slot (we usually see vertical break fall). Arm angle data updates every Sunday on Baseball Savant, so we don't have the specifics of the slot change, but I would bet it’s substantial (~5° or more). 👑

  • His changeup had 4” less vertical break (more drop) at the same velocity and about 300 rpm less spin. Unsure if this was a grip change or just a byproduct of a lower slot. His results were fantastic (6 IP, 5 baserunners, 8 K). It’s 4 average or better pitches with fantastic command numbers last season. I think the lower slot—if he maintains vertical break—is a clear net positive. Wheels up here, even if he only sits 92-93 mph.

• Phillies Cristopher Sanchez continues to add velocity. He averaged 92.1 mph on his sinker in 2023, 94.5 last season, and 96.5 yesterday. His release is also lower than last year, looking more like his 2023 slot. The encouraging thing is that the shape of his sinker is back to 2023 as well, despite the ~4 mph of added velocity. He averaged 5.7” vertical break yesterday compared to 7.5” last year. Lower vertical break number means more drop. If there’s anything that helps him to post another 4.7-fWAR season, it’s 2 ticks. 🔥

• Rays Drew Rasmussen reworked his cutter. The pitch added 4” vertical break at the same ~90 mph (less drop). He also used the offering as his primary pitch (50%) after mixing it just 28% last season. I think classification is missing a reworked curveball. He threw 4 pitches with notably more depth than his slider, -7” vertical break and 3” glove-side movement at 83 mph. His old curveball from 2023 was 80 mph with -15” vertical break, a much larger shape. He used all 4 of these shapes to lefites and continued to use his sweeper to righties. ☀️

• Nationals Michael Soroka underwent a pretty massive slot change. His release is down roughly 6” from 6’ to 5.5’ while his extension is roughly the same. His four-seam only lost ~1” vertical break. The result is a much flatter approach of the pitch into the zone. His vertical approach angle (VAA) went from -4.7° or steeper than average to -4.1° or flatter than average (location has some influence here too). And it appears he’s back to using his four-seamer as his primary offering—56% usage today compared to 32% last year. 🤔

  • His slider got bigger, picking up drop (2.5”) and sweep (6”), and his changeup is 3 mph harder with 4” more vertical break (less drop). He looks pretty different from a shape perspective than he did last season. We need a few more outings to contextualize the changes, given the quantity. My initial worry is that he becomes too four-seam focused again with the new flat-approach four-seamer.

• Orioles Cade Povich has a pretty wacky new splitter(?). His changeup last year was 86 mph with 8” vertical break and 15” arm-side movement. His new splitter thing is 83 mph with 5” vertical break and 5” arm-side movement. It’s an odd shape that he appears to be cutting, hence the big reduction in arm-side movement. It’s now more of a pure chase pitch than a zone-finder like his changeup from last season. Below is a not-so-great look at the grip, which doesn’t appear to be a true splitter despite the low spin rate. 🖖

  

  Cade Povich’s New Splitter/Changeup

• Reds Brady Singer has a new cutter. The pitch is 87.4 mph with 8” vertical break and ~1.5” glove-side movement. It’s an average cutter shape, but 3 ticks slower, causing Stuff+ to yawn at the offering. He allowed 177 points more SLG to lefties than righties last season, so anything to use behind in count to pull down four-seam/sinker usage makes sense. ✂️