Reynaldo Lopez's New Changeup? How Alec Marsh stumped the Yankees
Reynaldo Lopez, Alec Marsh, Roddery Munoz
Braves Reynaldo Lopez might have a new changeup. He threw a season-high 14 last night, eclipsing his previous season-high of 6. The pitch’s shape also looked different. It had 13” vertical break with 10” arm-side in April and May. It had 9” vertical break with 13” arm-side in yesterday’s outing (same velocity). The pitch is dropping more and running to his arm-side more, allowing it to separate further from his fastball. 💡
What I like most about the jump in usage on this pitch is that of the 14 he threw, 8 were before 2 strikes. He’s using the pitch not just as another whiff pitch to lefties but as a way to get them off his fastball early. There isn’t a dramatic change in the Stuff+ on this changeup, which is mildly surprising to me, but changeup grading can be weird. I’d guess this is a new changeup grip or orientation. Let’s see if it sticks. It would be sharp move to use this pitch more as a way to stave off regression from 1.69 ERA.
Royals Alec Marsh didn’t throw any four-seamers to the Yankees (7 IP, H, 2 BB, 7 K). His four-seam usage stabilized around 40% in his 6 starts before last night. He dropped it to 23% versus lefties and 29% versus righties. He leaned on his sweeper and curveball to righties as well, doubling both their usage (32% combined yesterday). To lefties, he went heavy on his changeup. 👑
The Yankees right-handers are a top-3 team in xwOBA on contact against four-seamers. Their left-handers are a top-6 team on the same stat. Even with low four-seam usage for Marsh (40%), I love the angle of cutting usage even more and leaning simply on the pitches that don’t allow as much damage. Hat tip to the Royals’ for the aggressive use of non-fastballs against one of the best offenses in baseball. The key to this working may have been that Marsh had breaker/offspeed feel, zoning his non-fastballs above his season average. That’s a risk worth taking.
Marlins Roddery Munoz is an interesting arm. He has a low release with low extension and above-average fastball velo. His cutter and slider grade out near plus pitches (109 and 110 Driveline Stuff+ respectively). He manages righties well, hammering those two pitches on the outer third. Lefties have been more of a work in progress. He’s throwing 5 pitches >15%, working most with his four-seam and hard changeup, the Marlins signature. 🐠
There’s more room for sinkers here, especially to righties if the four-seam becomes less effective, which I bet it will. Driveline’s Stuff+ has his sinker as his better fastball. 95 mph with 17-18” arm-side run will play against most hitters. I think he could be a menace to righties if he pushes the usage of that pitch up. To lefties, I’m a bit more uncertain. I’d probably push the changeup usage over 25% because his command for the pitch in the shadows appears strong in small samples. Then I’d lean on more cutter as his primary get-ahead pitch and keep the four-seam elevated as he is. The baseline level of command here isn’t great. It’s more about figuring out what limits damage over the middle of the plate best in early count situations.