Reese Olson Needs A Cutter. Blake Snell's Fastball Location
Reese Olson, Blake Snell, Logan Allen
Tigers Reese Olson is gradually losing his fastball. In the month of July he averaged 15” vertical break from a 5.9’ release, FanGraphs Stuff+ of 90. Over his last two starts, the pitch is down to 13” vertical break from a 6.1’ release, FanGraphs Stuff+ to 78. Generally, we expect fastballs to pick up some carry from a higher release, but that’s not the case here. Velo down marginally as well (<1 mph). I think we generally assume a fastball fix is easier in pitchers than it actually is. For Reese, I’m not sure the four-seam is ever going to be plus, which will handicap him versus left-handed hitters. The sinker is good enough to work versus righties, despite stuff, location is strong. His changeup is a plus pitch, so perhaps there’s a path to toggle that usage above 30%, but it’s in zone at a below-average rate, so there’s risk he just puts most lefties on base. I think the shape of the slider (-3” vertical break with 6” sweep at 85 mph) allows for some kind of cutter to lefties without tweaking the existing slider shape. Maybe we can dream on something 89-90 mph with 6” vertical break and 1-2” cut (Driveline Stuff+ would be 90 at that shape). Almost feels like malpractice to keep letting him throw a four-seam that now has worse shape 45%+ to lefties.
Padres Blake Snell is seeing some regression in the contact quality of his fastball over the past month of starts. .339 xwOBA on contact has risen to .540 versus righties, small usage jump from 39% to 44%. It appears to me that he was placing his fastball more inside in July and has now toggled it to more of an away / down-away pitch. He’s always relied on his changeup/slider/curveball for success, but his crazy run during this season coincided with better batted-ball outcomes on his fastball, which now appears to be lagging behind. Might be worth watching whether he toggles back down the fastball usage below 40% (although he is already walking a lot of guys) or moves the four-seam inside more frequently.
Guardians Logan Allen might be running into some fatigue. Over his last 3 starts, his extension is down 2-3” while his release height has actually dropped 1-2” compared to his prior. Usually you’ll see an inverse relationship between extension and release height. This suggests to me his arm angle is flattening out, becoming more sidearm. It hasn’t actually affected his shape much at all (suggests my observation could be wrong) and his velo is actually up slightly, which has caused a slight uptick in FanGraphs Stuff+ on the four-seam (79 to 87). But this is a situation where the diminishing contact quality is the more notable story. Overall xwOBA on contact has gone from .354 to .497. Fastball is getting hit slightly harder versus righties, but his cutter/slider have both fallen behind, thanks to a pair of hard-hit balls at the bottom of the zone (small sample). He just matched his career-high innings total from last year. Curious to see how much more of a leash he’s given.
