Hunter Greene's Slider. Jesus Luzardo Tweak?
Hunter Greene, Jesus Luzardo, Grant Holmes
New YouTube video on my dive into biomechanics and whether lower arm angles are good just dropped!
Reds Hunter Greene is running some nutty results on his slider. Among sweepers and sliders thrown more than 50 times this season, he has the highest swinging-strike rate in MLB at 28% (16% is average). It’s 1 of 2 sliders in baseball thrown 100+ times that hitters swing and miss at more than 52% of the time (Andres Munoz is the other). In his last 3 starts, he’s started to move the pitch off the plate more. His zone rate in his first four games on this slider was 48% to righties and 51% to lefties. That’s fallen to 38% and 39% respectively. The pitch is 88 mph with 4” vertical break and 6” sweep. That’s 2 ticks hotter than the average slider with 3” more vertical break (less drop). I wonder if the limited drop, when thrown down in zone, appears to hold fastball line longer than a pitch with 0” or -1” vertical break at the same velocity and sweep located down. 🤯
He has the second-highest strike rate in baseball on his four-seamer (among qualified SPs). The four other pitchers inside the top 10 in strike rate that sit above 95 mph are Spencer Schwellenbach, Tarik Skubal and Bryan Woo. Perhaps an oversimplification of pitching, but hard four-seamers with high strike rates seem like a good combo.
Phillies Jesus Luzardo may have broken out a new slider shape last night. He debuted a sweeper this year, which he’s throwing as a third non-fastball to righties and his primary weapon to lefties. (His sweeper to lefties has an insane 52% usage with a 30% swinging-strike rate.) Last night, however, I think he tweaked his gyro slider. In his previous starts, the pitch was 86.5 mph with 2” vertical break and 0” horizontal. Last night, the 7 he threw averaged 87.5 mph with -4” vertical break and 1” horizontal. Only one slider he threw this season prior to tonight had negative vertical break. All 7 he threw tonight had negative vertical break.
Unfortunately, I don’t have a grip or release from last night for me to confirm, but I think it’s enough of a change in the context of his mix to suggest an orientation tweak to pick up more drop, which is impressive with a small velocity increase. Usually we see the inverse—more drop, less velo. Below is his sweeper (spiked) and old gyro slider grip, which what I think changed in last night’s outing. 🤔
Braves Grant Holmes has run into some huge regression versus right-handed hitters this season. His 20% swinging-strike rate from last year is down to 11% this season. His xwOBA on contact has exploded from .252 to .505. His cutter, slider, and curveball all have ~3” less vertical break than last season (more drop). This feels like it could be a byproduct of a subtle mechanics change, but nothing jumps out in his release data. His four-seamer has jumped from 37% to 47% usage this season, taking over his slider as his primary pitch. Far more perplexing to me is why he’s throwing 45% four-seamer in two-strike counts to righties, where the pitch is generating just 11% swing-miss. 🤦♂️
I might be simplifying this one too much, but it feels like a no-brainer to revert back to his 2024 approach against righties (more slider, fewer four-seam). His slider command is good enough to hang just below 50% zone rate. I don’t think the walks would balloon. Marginally more strikes at the expense of a now 13% barrel rate is a poor trade-off. His lefty approach looks great from a results standpoint, and guess what … he’s throwing fewer four-seamers than last year!
1 HB and -4 VB would start to fall into the Death Ball category for Luzardo right? Wonder if it’s a release thing and he’s thinking of it more as a CB type pitch a little?
Also Hunter Greene insane arm talent what you said about the pitch holding the line longer makes total sense to me. I love how aggressive he’s been with his pitch mix this season. I thought he might be about one more season away from putting it truly altogether but think I may have been wrong about that!