Chase Burns' Electric Debut. Spencer Strider's Velocity Bounceback
Chase Burns, Spencer Strider, Eric Lauer
Reds Chase Burns made his MLB debut (5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 8 K). Burns’ fastball shape is fantastic. He averaged 98 mph with 18” vertical break and 3” arm-side movement from his well above average 6.4’ release. It’s a strong cut-ride shape, with about 3” less arm-side movement than average for his slot but a smidge more vertical break and plus velocity. His slider is a devastating 89 mph with -1 to 1” vertical break and 6-7” glove-side movement. There are only two other sliders in MLB that sit harder than 88 mph with less than 1” vertical break (aka, a lot of drop) and more than 5” glove-side movement—Camilo Doval and Ryan Helsley (min 70 thrown). The latter is a much better comp given how low Doval’s slot is. Burns also threw one true curveball shape at 82 mph, an 0-0 pitch to Trent Grishman in the 5th inning. It’s a pure speed-changer, shape wasn’t great, but I love it strategically. 🔥
The impressive thing is how developed his changeup is. He threw the pitch 15% to left-handed hitters yesterday, freezing Cody Bellinger on strike three in the 2nd inning. It looks like he added a “kick” to the pitch when he got to Triple-A, as the pitch lost 3” vertical break (more drop) and added 3” arm-side movement (see below). It’s a far more impressive pitch than what he tinkered with at Wake Forest. There are some fastball playability concerns despite the stellar shape. I think this will push him to a sinker against righties eventually, but that’s ticky-tack stuff. He’s an exceptional prospect with a platoon-neutral, demon slider that is going to befuddle hitters for ages.
Braves Spencer Strider has been stellar over his last 3 starts (36% K-BB) after struggling in his first 5 in his return from surgery (12% K-BB). I theorized his success would come from mixing everything that wasn’t his four-seamer, but with his velocity now back sitting 96 mph and his slider back to 84+, he’s leaned into just those two pitches even more. He’s succeeding with a completely different fastball location to right-handed hitters as well, moving it from up-away to middle down (see below). This seems attached to his ~75% slider usage in two-strike counts to righties over these last three outings. 📈
He’s strike-stealing with the fastball and then burying hitters with the slider. It’s working… but only when hitters don’t clip the fastball in early count spots, which has happened a few times over his last three starts. It also doesn’t seem intentional? Watching his recent outings, his four-seam targets don’t seem dramatically shifted from the away or up targets he had previously. The result has been an essentially untouchable slider (37% swinging-strike rate). I think the velocity uptick helps a lot. The four-seam location drifting is something I’ll monitor. I’d still love to see him play with a sinker.
Blue Jays Eric Lauer has a 2.21 ERA in 40.1 IP, making three consecutive starts after spending last season in the KBO. His fastball velocity and release traits all look pretty identical to 2023, his last MLB sample. The notable shape changes are a slightly slower cutter (more drop and more glove-side movement) and a new changeup (shown below). He’s pulled back a lot on his cutter as well, throwing it just 17% this year compared to 34% in 2023, and even more of a pullback in two-strike counts. Making up that usage difference is mostly this new changeup, but also more curveballs. He’s not a sub-3 ERA pitcher, as he’s running an insanely low BABIP and strand rate. Projections see him anywhere from 4.20-4.60 ERA, which I think is fair. I’m not convinced there’s enough change here to warrant a more aggressive projection moving forward. 🇨🇦
I’d love to see you do a pitcher ranking