Lucas Giolito Returns. Luis Severino Flip-Flopped
Lucas Giolito, Luis Severino, Chase Petty
Red Sox Lucas Giolito returned to the mound for the first time since 2023 (6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K). His release height was down 4”, likely a slot change post-surgery, as we’ve seen with deGrom and Strider. His four-seamer maintained most of its vertical break in this outing (17.8”) and added 2” arm-side movement, but it was the Rogers Centre, where shapes are sometimes inflated. His velocity was a smidge higher than 2023, which is a good sign for a first outing. He threw a bunch of four-seam+changeup in this outing, using breaking balls just 8%. 🧦
It’s tough to gauge the Red Sox’s approach to his mix from just one outing, but he averaged just 24% changeup to righties last year and threw 38% yesterday. I’d theorize there was a slider tweak here as well. No pictures of grip yet, but the 5 he threw had 3” more sweep and 4” more vertical break (less drop) than it averaged in 2023. I hesitate to assume it’s an orientation change without more info, because that movement change could be a byproduct of his slot drop. It’s always fair to be cautious off big surgeries, but this was a positive debut from multiple angles, especially his velocity sitting above 2023 levels. I’m curious to see if the Red Sox experiment with his breaking balls.
Athletics Luis Severino is throwing more cutters to left-handed hitters this season. His lefty mix last season was 50% four-seam with sweepers, sinkers, and changeups. This season, he’s diversifying, throwing just 28% four-seam, incorporating his cutter 23%. He threw 52% four-seamers in two-strike situations last year and allowed a 13% barrel rate in those counts. Two-strike four-seamers are down to 35% this season as he’s mixing more sinker and sweeper. The result? He hasn’t allowed a two-strike barrel this year to a lefty. 👍
He’s cut his lefty fly-ball rate in half with this approach change, and his net results look a touch better. Despite the improvement versus lefties, his righty swing-miss has fallen. He’s down to an 8% swinging-strike rate from 12% last year. His sweeper hasn’t missed a bat in-zone this season to a righty, and his four-seam in-zone whiff is down from 25% to 18%. It’s a hard one to square because his shapes, approach, and usage all look similar to 2024. Head-scratcher for me. His rest of season projection has him down to a 19% strikeout rate with a 4 ERA. I’ll be watching for any righty tweaks.
Reds Chase Petty got roughed up in his MLB debut (2.1 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 3 K). He simplified his mix in this outing, throwing 80% four-seam and slider. At Triple-A this year, those two pitches combined for just 54% usage. Versus lefties, he’s usually four-seam up, with sinkers middle, sliders in, and changeups away. Righties get more sinker, mostly in, with four-seam, slider, and sweeper all away. The 3-R HR he allowed to Contreras was a target deke by his catcher, flashing an up target on an 0-0 slider before drifting down-away (man on second base). Petty unfortunately threw it right where the deke target was instead of dotting it down-away. His double to Walker was an attempt to grab a 1-0 strike away with a four-seamer that he missed arm-side down-in. Not excuses, but 2 swings were 6 of these runs. 🎲
He’s an undersized righty with a below-average release height due to his low slot and pretty lateral shapes. His four-seam is more of a runner, but I think it works in concert with his sinker to both righties and lefties. My evaluation of him in my top 40 pitching prospects was a bit off. I had him 28th with more zone-pounding traits, which now that I have access to better minor league data, doesn’t look as zone-happy. I stand by my idea that he’s an odd low-slot pitcher, given his high spin efficiency and inability to create shape separation in his mix. He’s more of what Driveline Baseball calls a “match” pitcher, with multiple shapes diverging slightly. I theorize those types allow more damage on their misses because their margins for error through shape are smaller.