Garrett Crochet's Cutter Location Changed. Who is Chad Patrick?
Garrett Crochet, Chad Patrick, Brady Singer
Red Sox Garrett Crochet’s cutter is morphing. I always enjoy checking in on Crochet, mainly because he’s an amazing pitcher, but also because he can toggle between his four-seam and cutter usage at will to right-handed hitters. As of his April 29th outing, he’s started using the cutter more inside than backdoor to righties (see below). In that same period, his cutter gained 1 mph, 3” of vertical break, and lost 1” sweep (dropping less). It has looked more like a true cutter rather than a hybrid slider. Perhaps this subtle shape shift is attached to the location change to the inner third due to the shift in release angle. ✂️
The average launch angle on his cutter has gone from 12° to 3°, suggesting the inner-third location has coaxed more ground balls. The xwOBAcon on his four-seam has risen from .294 to .539 (small sample). I wonder if the cutter location tweak has played with the visuals on his four-seamer, making it more damage-prone out over the plate. He’s pushed down his four-seam usage in his most recent 4 outings from 51% to 37%, suggesting some awareness of the pitch’s performance. No concerns at all here from me, more of an interesting nugget to ponder how pitches interact with one another when locations change. Great pitchers tinker. Sign me up for a ~3 ERA rest of season.
Brewers Chad Patrick holds a 3.35 ERA, 3.66 FIP in 9 starts for the Brewers. Key pitch is a cutter which he throws 40%+ to either handedness. It’s just 88 mph with 12” vertical break and 3” glove-side movement. FanGraphs Stuff+ gives it a 107 Stuff+, which is perplexing to me, given the pitch’s features don’t line up with other “good” cutter shapes in MLB. You generally want them hard or with minimal drop. Patrick’s is soft with a lot of lift. Stuff+ might be onto something given the 3% barrel rate on the pitch through 70+ balls in play. 🍺
Patrick’s approach is a 3-fastball look, which has become more and more popular in recent seasons. He throws >15% sinker, cutter, and four-seam to either handedness. When you look at his locations to lefties and righties, the three shapes are roughly similar in location to each respective handedness. I wonder if that amplifies the multi-fastball effect. He also has a smaller frame like Logan Henderson (is this a Brewers theme?). I doubt Patrick ever strikes out more than a batter per inning, but I’m not surprised a multi-fastball guy like this is exceeding expectations, especially when the Brewers desperately need it.
Reds Brady Singer is getting walloped by left-handed hitters this season (6.08 ERA / 5.38 FIP). His 13% K-BB is around average, but he’s allowed a 15% barrel rate, and his swinging-strike rate is under 10% (both bad). My concern is with his sinker. The average batted ball against it is hard (95.1 mph exit velo), and his 50% fly-ball rate on the pitch is way up from 17% last season. He’s throwing it on the inner third a bunch, trying to front-hip lefties, and the risk-reward balance is off, given it’s not generating swing-miss or productive ground-ball contact. 📉
The most baffling thing is why he increases sinker usage in two-strike counts to lefties. He’s throwing it 45% in two-strike counts and just 35% before two strikes. It’s low-hanging fruit to use the four-seam and slider more than the sinker in those situations. I’d be surprised if his strikeout rate didn’t jump with that usage change. I’ll take the over on a ~4.40 ERA projection until we see some alteration in his lefty approach. It also feels like he could throw a kick-changeup pretty easily with his fastball efficiency? Most righties would benefit from more left-hander whiffs against them. Anything to not use that much sinker in two-strike situations.
Is Singer trying to front hip the sinker with two strikes to lefties?