The Red Sox Fixed Brayan Bello? Another Max Fried Orientation Change

Brayan Bello, Max Fried, Brandon Walter

• Red Sox Brayan Bello has made some changes (7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 K). He threw a career-high 33% cutter yesterday, a pitch he hasn’t used more than 12% in a single game in his career. This comes after posting a 5% K-BB in May, where his sweeper allowed an 18% barrel rate with a .500+ xwOBA. He threw that sweeper just two times in yesterday’s game, a rarity given his heavy usage of the offering in the past (25%+). Bello’s cutter was his primary pitch to both righties and lefties. ✂️

  • It’s tough to judge the success of a pitch when a pitcher breaks it out against a team at an abnormally high rate. My reaction is that the cutter missed more righty bats than lefty, but contact quality allowed to either handedness looked sharp. This doesn’t feel like the end of the sweeper, rather a chance to retool it or adjust in some manner (I think he needs it against righties). Bello should pitch in San Francisco next weekend, which will give us another chance to see whether the cutter helps him succeed again with it in the opposing team’s scouting report before the outing.

• Yankees Max Fried has a new cutter (I think). The Yankees tweaked so much with Fried that every time I look I realize I may have missed something. Earlier this season, I thought they gave him a true four-seamer to pair with his more cutter-like four-seam shape. While that is still roughly true, the video below shows his standard four-seamer on the left, and what appears to be a new orientation on the right. I think both of these shapes are being grouped into Statcast’s “four-seam” classification for Fried, which makes analysis difficult. The true four-seam is averaging ~95 mph and averaging 13-15” vertical break with 0-3” arm-side movement. The new cutter shape is ~90, averaging something like 8” vertical break and 2-4” glove-side movement. 🧐

  • Last year with the Braves, only the orientation shown in the left video below was present, yet the shape of his 2024 four-seamer resembles more of the shape produced by the orientation in the video on the right. The takeaway here is that the Yankees know seam effects well, which I talked about at length here. Statcast probably needs a secondary classification for this cutter grip shown on the right. This is more of a cool thing I found rather than something extremely actionable. If it wasn’t for Skubal, Fried would have a shot at the AL Cy Young.

Max Fried’s four-seam variants (see above blurb for more information)

• Astros Brandon Walter is through three MLB starts with a 1.53 ERA and a 26% K-BB. He has above-average 6.6’ extension and a 5.5’ release, lower than ~75% of MLB lefties. He also throws from the far third-base side of the rubber, stepping slightly crossfire in his motion. His horizontal release isn’t an outlier, but I wonder if there’s something about his setup on the rubber that helps from an angle standpoint. His cutter’s horizontal approach angle is sharper inside than about 75% of cutters in MLB this season. 🤷‍♂️

  • He uses this cutter as his primary to right-handed hitters with heavy changeup and sweeper usage along with occasional four-seamers. All of his velocity is below average, sitting 88 mph on his cutter. His sinker is mostly for left-handed hitters. Between Ryan Gusto and Walter, the Astros have popped up some truly random arms this season that have had interesting traits and relative success. Walter is projected for a 4 ERA with a below-average strikeout rate, which feels fine. I’m more accepting him as an uncomfortable arm for poor lefty hitting teams to face (like TEX, LAA, BAL, KCR).