Drew Rasmussen's New Changeup. Chase Dollander's New Sinker

Drew Rasmussen, Chase Dollander, Janson Junk

• Rays Drew Rasmussen has a new changeup (5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, BB, 3 K yesterday). He threw it four times against the Mets, three for a ball and one for a strikeout of Brett Baty (below). It averaged 89 mph with 9.5” vertical break and 11.5” arm-side movement. This is roughly in line with the average changeup for pitchers with arm angles above 50°. Rasmussen’s is just substantially harder than the ~80 mph average. ☀️

  • I noted two weeks ago that he had been pushing the usage of his four-seam fastball up against left-handed hitters. It eclipsed 55% over his last 5 starts after sitting around 36% in April. While successful at this quantity, it seemed unsustainable given Rasmussen is throwing 75%+ combined four-seam and sinker in two-strike counts to lefties, the latter with the intent of front-hipping lefties for called strikes. I wonder if this changeup intends to take pressure off heavy deep-count fastball usage. It seems like a solid addition.

Drew Rasmussen’s new changeup to Brett Baty (June 14, 2025)

• Rockies Chase Dollander has a new sinker (6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K). He broke out the pitch on June 3rd, but in his last two outings, he’s thrown the pitch 24%. He’s using it more against left-handed hitters (27%) than right-handed hitters (19%) in these last two outings, which is a bit odd. The pitch is 96 mph with 5” vertical break and 16” arm-side movement (not in Coors, where it will lose arm-side movement). This shape is perfectly in line with the average for arm angles in the 20-30° range, Dollander’s is just 3 ticks harder, which is a plus. Of the 17 times the pitch has been put in play over his last 3 outings, it hasn’t resulted in a fly ball once—a fantastic sign. 🏔️

  • It was pretty obvious Dollander needed a sinker, given how much he threw four-seam fastballs in the minors. His 16% barrel rate allowed to righties on his four-seamer suggests this should’ve been done a while ago. Now I think it’s time to increase sinker usage to righties even with the pitch likely losing some reliability at Coors. Let’s pray it can reduce the .862 xwOBAcon his four-seam has allowed (more than 2x the average—a preposterous number). Dollander has struggled mightily in his first taste of MLB. He’s mostly ditched his signature slider in favor of his bigger curveball, and he’s pitching at Coors. There’s a lot of work to do here, and I’m glad to see some strides toward correction, but projecting anything better than a 4.80-5 ERA feels rich.

Chaser Dollander’s sinker to K Austin Riley (June 14, 2025)

• Marlins Janson Junk has a 2.85 xFIP and a 20% K-BB rate in 4 MLB outings, all of which in the bulk-guy role after openers. Junk is a big extension righty with a cut-ride fastball, averaging 94 mph with 18” vertical break and 3.5” arm-side (5” less than average). He has a short slider and a sweeper which have both been his biggest swing-miss offerings. He’s also throwing a pretty sick changeup to lefties—it’s 89 mph with 7” vertical break and 14” arm-side movement. The key here is the 11” of horizontal separation from his fastball shape (grip below) and Junk’s slot. He has a similarly high release to Drew Rasmussen, as mentioned above (55°). Junk’s changeup has both more drop and more arm-side movement than the standard changeup from this slot, and it’s still maintaining plus velocity. I think his home run rate will shoot back up given his zone rates (high) and stuff (more average per models). I’ll peg his season for something more like 4.20-4.40 than the 4.5+ ERA projection some are giving him, a good return for a preseason minor league signing. 🐠

Janson Junk’s changeup grip (2025)