Quinn Priester's LA Dominance. Pfaadt's Makeover

Quinn Priester, Brandon Pfaadt, Sean Manaea, Colin Rea

• Brewers Quinn Priester with a stellar outing in Los Angeles (6 IP, 3 H, 11 K). I wrote about him about 2 weeks ago, if you’re interested in how the Brewers retooled him. I mentioned in that write-up that I thought there was little strikeout upside … welp, he proved me wrong yesterday. He threw his sinker 55% in two-strike counts, generating 6 punchouts. The other four Ks came on his cutter. The most impressive was K’ing Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts to start the game (all on cutters). He also struck out the side in the 5th inning, showcasing his glove-side sinker command (see below). I think it’s hard to project him as anything other than a sub-4-ERA pitcher moving forward. His cutter has chewed up hitters. 🍺

Quinn Priester’s glove-side sinker command

• DBacks Brandon Pfaadt’s evolution continues (7 IP, 4 H, 6 K). I’ve written about the evolution of his curveball, his lefty problems, his everything problems, and the addition of a new cutter. Now it looks like he’s really backing off his four-seamer, throwing it 7% in his last outing and 20% last night, two of the three lowest usage games on the season for the pitch. The primary reduction is coming against left-handed hitters, who barreled the pitch 16% from April to June as Pfaadt continued to throw it ~35%. Over his last two outings, his lefty four-seamer usage stands at just 6%. 🐍

  • FanGraphs Stuff+ has his cutter as a below-average pitch (91 where 96 is average), but giving him a pitch that isn’t a four-seamer, which he can strike to left-handed hitters, is an important part of the pitch’s development. So far, the results have been great, and it feels like the worst of Pfaadt’s season is behind us. The DBacks need him to be a sub-4.20 ERA pitcher if they trade both Gallen and Kelly.

Brandon Pfaadt’s new cutter

• Mets Sean Manaea has returned from an oblique and a subsequent elbow injury, tossing 7.1 total innings with 13 K to 2 BB in 2 starts. His velocity has averaged 92 mph in these two outings, down 1 mph from last year’s full-season average. It’s worth noting that this 92 mph is, however, in line with his August/September velocity from last season, when his arm angle fell from ~23° to ~14° compared to July. Perhaps with the lower slot, he’s not going to climb back to that 93-mph area. 🍎

  • Manaea has also thrown just one changeup in these two outings to righties after throwing the pitch 14% in the second half last season. He’s pushed both his four-seam and slider usage up to compensate. There’s some variance in his projection, with aggressive systems seeing a ~3.70 ERA pitcher and others more of a 4.30 ERA pitcher. I’d skew toward the 3.70 ERA.

• Cubs Colin Rea has a 1.90 ERA over his last 4 starts. His 8% K-BB in that time versus left-handed hitters isn’t great, but he’s made some changes to keep them off the barrel. The main difference is the diversification of his four-seam location (see below). This has pushed his four-seam from a .472 xwOBAcon from May 1 to June 22 down to .173 in his last 3 outings. He’s also relying a lot more on his splitter, pushing the pitch’s usage from 19% to 28% in his last four outings. Rea is doing a pretty good job filling the Cubs rotation holes until they acquire deadline pitching, even with some regression due. 🐻

Colin Rea’s four-seam fastball location to left-handed hitters, comparing May 1 to June 22 against his last four outings. Notice how the concentration of red has shifted both inside and away as opposed to just middle,