Pitch Shape Data: Chase Dollander, Hurston Waldrep, Rhett Lowder

Chase Dollander, Hurston Waldrep, Rhett Lowder

If you’re looking for Paul Skenes data, look no further.

CHASE DOLLANDER

Summary - Flat-approach fastball, lands everything in the zone, cutter-y slider, considerable regression in results from 2022 to 2023

Question - What’s the approach with his breaking ball(s)?

Basics - Extension right at 6 feet, slightly below average. Release height at 5-foot-5 is below average as well. Matches release heights really well for all his pitches. He’s a lower-arm-angle guy, opposite of Hurston Waldrep below.

Fastball - Averages 95 mph up to 97. 16.5” vertical break with 12” arm-side run, spin around 2,400 rpm. VAA is -4.2°, which is 86th percentile among MLB fastballs, the approach of the pitch is very flat. Zone rate is right at the MLB average, generating a strong 30% swing-miss rate where 22% is MLB average. Two-plane nature of the pitch causes it to play better versus right-handed hitters than left. He threw this pitch 66% of the time in college, which will come down in the majors, although this is probably his best pitch. Comps well to what Emmet Sheehan throws, although Sheehan is lower on his release and greater on extension. Josiah Gray is another four-seam comp, but he had fastball issues last year and cut his usage considerably in favor of a cutter this year, which is now his best pitch. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 104

Cutter - Averages 86 mph up to 89. Averaged out to 8” vertical break with 4” cut/sweep, spin around 2,700. In zone at an average rate, generating a strong 37% swing-miss rate where 33% is MLB average for sliders. This is bordering on cutter territory because of the backspin he’s getting on it. It currently comps to something like Tony Gonsolin’s slider or Shane Bieber’s cutter (Bieber has more extension). The variance in the shape seems large as well, so the average shape here could be deceptive as to what he’s throwing in a given outing. Probably low-hanging fruit to try a sweeper to supplement whatever this cutter-y shape is. In an ideal world, it would be fun to see him work like Zac Gallen and throw the current average shape to lefties with more drop and sweep to righties. But I think creating consistency with one given shape is probably a first step in pro ball. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 88

Changeup - Averages 87 mph up to 89. 10” vertical break with 16” arm-side run. Spin is high, around 2,200 rpms. He landed it in the zone at an above-average rate, but it only generated 22% swing-miss where 31% is MLB average. The chase he got on it is the highest of anything in his repertoire. The actual underlying separation from his fastball on either velocity or vertical drop aren’t notable, so the result is a pitch that relies more on command or sell for it to succeed. Curious if there’s another grip/orientation in here that could kill more spin and vertical break. I think he’s getting behind the pitch a lot right now based on shape and grip. Shape right now comps to Jameson Taillon’s or Trevor May’s CH. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 75

Curveball - Averages 77 mph up to 79. This pitch has some large variance as well, blending between more of a standard curveball with -11” vertical break and 16” sweep and then looking more in the vein of a slurve with -5” vertical break and 15” sweep. The latter is probably a base to go off of for an eventual sweeper to righties if an org goes that route. Otherwise, his angle probably creates more of a sweep breaking ball than anything north-south. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 89

HURSTON WALDREP

Summary - Nasty splitter with cut-ride fastball, relies on chase

Question - Which scouting director will give up the naming rights to their firstborn child in exchange for more strikes?

Basics - Extension varies slightly based on pitch type, but averages out to about 6-foot-1, which lands slightly below the major league average. Release point is 6-foot-5, which is ~6” higher than the MLB average of 5-foot-10.

Fastball - Prototype cut-ride fastball. Averages 94 mph, up to 96. 16.5” vertical break and 0” horizontal movement, spin around 2,300 rpm. Only generated 18% swing-miss where 22% is MLB average for four-seamers. In zone just over 50% of the time where 54% is MLB average for four-seamers. This is an off-barrel pitch rather than swing-miss. Think Drew Rasmussen, Pete Fairbanks (more velo), Kyle Bradish (more cut). Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 106

Splitter - This is what you’re drafting him for. Averages 86 mph, up to 89. 2” vertical break, 5” arm-side movement, variance in movement is large, as is standard with most splitters. Spin down around 1,500 rpm. In zone around 33% of the time where 37% is average for splitters in MLB. Swing-miss up around 62% where 35% is MLB average, generating 45% chase, where 37% is MLB average. This isn’t running like most splitters (think Alex Cobb, Taijuan Walker), his release is more over-the-top, such that the action resembles more of a gyro-ball like Mark Leiter Jr., Logan Gilbert. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 117

Slider - Baby sweeper shape. Averages 85 mph up to 87. 2” vertical break with 9” sweep. Spin around 2,300 rpms. In zone around 40% of the time where 45% is MLB average for sliders. Swing-miss at 47% where 33% is average for sliders. Generated strong 46% chase where 32% is average for sliders. Not a true sweeper, but pushing into that territory, sweep perhaps limited by arm angle (over-the-top)? Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 112

Curveball - North-south action. Averages 82 mph up to 84. -12” vertical break, 4” sweep. In zone less than average, generated a really strong 54% swing-miss. Threw this pitch more than his slider, yet it generated a much lower swing rate than anything in his repertoire. I imagine the usage on this comes down in pro ball. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 99

RHETT LOWDER

Summary - Banger changeup, good slider, fastball lagging behind

Question - How maxed out is his profile—specifically his fastball and velocity—after being with Wake Forest for 3 seasons?

Basics - Extension comes in just below league average at 5-foot-11. Release height also sits below average at 5-foot-7. More like Dollander than Waldrep in terms of release.

Fastball - Two-seam runner. Averages 92 mph, up to 94. 14” vertical break with 17” arm-side run. Spin around 2,200 rpm. The shape here is more of a runner two-seam rather than a four-seam or sinker. VAA sits around -5.4° which is steeper than average for a fastball. Generated a 24% swing-miss rate where 22% is MLB average. In zone 52% of the time where 54% is average for an MLB fastball. Contact quality here was good in college, but this shape is generally not average-or-better in MLB and lends itself to platoon splits (better vs righties than lefties). The run he’s getting is important for the grade, because without it, the pitch would grade even worse for the velocity. Wake Forest also only had him throwing it 40% of the time, so there was likely an understanding there that it wasn’t a pitch to rely on heavily. Shape comps to Nick Martinez or Domingo Acevedo. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 93

Changeup - This is what you’re drafting him for. Averages 85 mph up to 87. 2” vertical break with 17” arm-side run. In zone 40% of the time where 39% is MLB average, generated the strongest swing-miss in his arsenal at 43% where 31% is average for MLB changeups. Also generated above-average chase. The ability to get 12” separation from a fastball with only a 7 mph differential is fantastic, bodes well for the play of the pitch in MLB. If an MLB org can get him up in velo on the fastball, you’d presume the changeup velo would rise ~2 mph as well. Not much else to say here, great pitch, could probably land in zone more and not have issues. Shape comps to Dean Kremer’s CH, Jesse Chavez. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 112

Slider - Gyro slider with some cut. Averages 83 mph, up to 87 mph. 2” vertical break with 5” sweep/cut. Spin around 2,700 rpm. Generated a 43% swing-miss rate, where 34% is MLB average for sliders. Also generated the most chase in his repertoire and the most swings, yet still performed well on batted-ball quality. Like the fastball, velocity would help the pitch grade out better, but results on the present shape were encouraging, even if there are no outlier release or deception traits on it to suggest the same shape will have similar success in MLB. Shape comps to Seth Lugo or Carlos Carrasco’s sliders. Driveline Baseball Stuff+: 98