Mick Abel's Electric MLB Debut. Zebby Matthews Can't Figure Out MLB Hitters

Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Michael Wacha

• Phillies Mick Abel with a stellar debut (6 IP, 5 H, 9 K). He seemed a bit juiced up in this outing, sitting 97.3 mph on his four-seamer after averaging 95.8 in his final 3 starts at Triple-A. He fell back to 96.4 mph in the 5th and 6th innings, so I’d guess that’s where he sits moving forward. Abel is 6-foot-5 with 6.9’ extension and a 5.7’ release. To my eye, his body is incredibly loose, displaying minimal effort to touch 99 mph. To righties, he throws a four-seamer, sinker, slider and curveball. To lefties, it’s heavy four-seam and curve with changeups. The key is his four-seamer. It has ~16” vertical break with 9-10” arm-side movement, both marginally above-average for his release height with above-average velocity. It had a 14% swinging-strike rate at Triple-A this season, better than his slider. 📈

  • Most of the prospect industry (me included) gave up on Abel. And that seems premature. Something clicked this season with strike-throwing, and the results have been great. Abel threw just 59% strikes last year at Triple-A. That jumped to 64% this season (roughly average). This was due primarily to a 10 percentage point leap in his four-seamer’s zone rate to lefties (see below) and slider zone aggression to righties.

  • There’s a lot to like here from a mechanics, velocity, shapes, and release perspective. To pour some cold water on Abel, he had just an 11% K-BB at Triple-A against righties. This is mainly due to his slider acting more like a ground-ball than whiff pitch when in zone. I’d monitor the righty approach and see if Caleb Cotham pulls any strings with his attack plan or just embraces the very good fastball. It’s hard not to be intrigued here after this debut and the year-over-year improvements. He’ll get the Athletics in Sacramento next weekend, and we’ll monitor Nola’s injury in the meantime.

Abel’s four-seam location to lefties at Triple-A last season and this season. Notice how the deepest red concentration (high frequency of location) has drifted to be more middle of the plate in 2025.

• Twins Zebby Matthews K’d the first three batters he faced and then finished with a 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K line in Milwaukee. I think many analysts were hoping Matthews was a George Kirby-like figure, but we haven’t seen those results in MLB. His four-seamer zone rate is down considerably compared to last season, alongside a small uptick in velocity. 68% to 59% versus lefties and 65% to 56% versus righties. He was so strike-happy last year that this regression still puts him above-average in terms of strikes. I wonder if it’s an intentional way to avoid damage, given the four-seam is creeping to the shadows versus either handedness of hitter. 🤔

  • Matthews had an issue with lefties in MLB last season, getting crushed middle-in. To mitigate that, it appears he’s reserving his slider for two-strike situations and using more cutters when he’s behind in the count, a subtle attack change I like. Versus righties, he’s pushed his four-seam usage higher in two-strike situations, which I don’t love from a putaway standpoint. This outing wasn’t particularly barrel-heavy, but there also wasn’t a lot of zone miss, something that jumped out in MLB last season. I’m going to reserve judgment here and see how he performs at home next weekend versus the Royals. I still have hope, even if the Twins aren’t pushing him deep into games.

• Royals Michael Wacha made a small change in his approach to right-handed hitters. His changeup usage is down from 27% in the second half last year to 17% this season, mostly driven by a lean on his slider in two-strike situations. Usage on the breaker is up from 6% to 18% in two-strike spots to righties this season. I wonder if this is an effort to limit fly balls versus righties, given his slider’s ability to get ball on the ground at nearly triple that of his changeup this season. Wacha has also moved his four-seamer into the zone versus righties (see below). Perhaps this could have some connection to the “line” his fastball creates for his slider to work off. 👑

  • We’ll see if Wacha’s slider approach can continue to limit HRs like this. He’s probably due for regression from his 2.86 ERA / 3.12 FIP. Projections think he’s more like a ~4 ERA guy rest of season, but he’s managed to outperform that for each of his last 3 seasons. After 3 years of ERA telling us he’s more like a 3.40 ERA guy, what wins—Father Time or the ERA Gods?

Michael Wacha’s four-seam location to righties (2024 vs 2025). Notice how the deepest red concentration (highest frequency of location) is centered over the plate compared to 2024.