Jesus Luzardo's New Sweeper. Max Fried's New Sinker. Walker Bueheler Hates Fastballs
Jesus Luzardo, Max Fried, Walker Buehler & More
Phillies Jesus Luzardo has a new sweeper. The pitch is 86.8 mph with 2” vertical break and 7” glove-side movement. This is 4-5 ticks harder than the average sweeper with 5” less glove-side. The velocity is enough to let this grade out as an above-average pitch. The interesting angle is that he threw the pitch more than his bullet slider and changeup to right-handed hitters (22%). We don’t see a lot of lefty sweepers against righty hitters (~5%). Given it’s a new pitch, I wonder how much it worked through shock factor vs actual pitch quality and the long-term viability of the approach. 🧹
What will help Luzardo, regardless of his sweeper’s success, is his added velocity. His fastball sat 96.9 mph, up 1.7 mph from his average last year. It was his hardest average four-seam fastball velocity since August 2023. His slider and changeup were up 2-3 mph as well.
Giants Justin Verlander might be throwing a sweeper? He had 9 pitches today that averaged -6” vertical break and 14” glove-side movement (all tracked as curveballs). He threw just 1 pitch last season with more than 10” glove-side and more lift than -6” vertical break. Perhaps it’s a variant of his curveball? Maybe it’s his classic curveball grip he’s manipulating to sweep more? Either way, it feels intentional. There wasn’t a clear usage pattern of this “sweeper” to righties or lefties, he mixed it to both lefties and righties We’ll see if it sticks. See plot comparison below for the shape. 🤔
Yankees Max Fried has a new sinker. The pitch is 1 mph harder than last season, with more drop. It averaged 94.2 mph yesterday with 5.4” vertical break and 10.5” arm-side movement. Last season, it averaged 8.5” vertical break with 10.4” arm-side movement at 93.6 mph. Less vertical break means more drop. 🗽
The Yankees are cooking on new sinker shapes. First Rodon, now Fried. He went heavy on his sinker + four-seam yesterday to lefties (73% combined compared to 51% all last year). His 2024 sinker wasn’t great from a contact quality standpoint to either handedness of hitter last season. A shape that deviates more from his arm angle should help it stay off barrel more.
Guardians Gavin Williams has a new slider. The pitch is more of a sweeper, sitting 87 mph with -1” vertical break and 8” sweep. This is a plus shape, which we saw coming in spring. He also tweaked something mechanically. His extension is down ~5” while his release height has climbed 4”. Once we have arm angle data on Baseball Savant, I expect an increase from 2024. Williams’ velocity was also up ~1 mph, sitting 97.5 mph compared to 96.6 last season. 🔥
It’s worth noting that in spring, Williams’ vertical break went up compared to last season. He averaged 16.8” vertical break in spring at 96.2 mph across ~200 fastballs. Yesterday, he averaged just 15.3” vertical break. So the increase in stuff due to the velocity uptick is negated by the higher slot and same vertical break as 2024. This is (partially) why his fastball didn’t miss bats in the zone. I still love him for this season, but this may not be a world-beater fastball unless he picks back up the vertical break.
Red Sox Walker Buehler backed off his four-seamer to righties yesterday. It’s another case of the Red Sox’s pitching philosophy taking over another pitcher. I won’t overreact to one start’s usage, but this is a continual trend we see when pitchers join the Red Sox. Buehler averaged 29% sinker and 27% four-seam to righties last season. Yesterday, across 47 pitches, he threw 19% sinker and 13% four-seam. He spearheaded his righty mix with 34% sweeper, the most sweeper he’s thrown on a % basis to righties in a game since June 2022. 👍
Walker Buehler also threw 8 right-right changeups. He threw just 6 right-right changeups in his combined 140.1 IP from 2022 to 2024. That’s a very unexpected but cool development. We’ll see if it was matchup-based in his next few starts. I also think he tweaked the pitch. It had 2” more arm-side movement and was 300 rpm higher than 2024. Not a massive change in shape. I’ll be on the lookout for a grip. The Red Sox hate fastballs, don’t let them tell you otherwise.
Angels Jose Soriano has a new slider shape. It’s 86.5 mph with -3” vertical break and 3” glove-side movement. That’s not quite a death ball, living in downer slider territory. His slider last year was 91 mph with 2” vertical break and 1” arm-side movement. This is an even trade from a Stuff standpoint. I slightly prefer his old slider from a velocity perspective, but understand the desire to have something hard with more depth to righties that wasn’t his curveball. 😇
Soriano also appeared to be cutting his sinker yesterday. The pitch was down 1 mph, with 3” less vertical break (more drop) and lost 4” arm-side movement. Stuff models will downgrade the pitch due to the loss of arm-side. It’s something to monitor in his next outing.