Aaron Nola Changes it Up. Ben Casparius the Starter
Aaron Nola, Ben Casparius, Logan Evans
I dropped a new YouTube video on the Cubs’ odd approach with four-seam fastballs, I encourage you to check it out!
Phillies Aaron Nola threw a bunch of cutters to righties against the Cubs last night (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, BB, 6 K). 35% usage across 37 pitches is a career high mark for righty cutter usage in a given game (previous high of 33% in 2022). While I think that’s noteworthy, Nola’s much bigger issue this season has been left-handed hitters, who barreled him at a 16% clip in the second half last season as well. No luck from the Cubs lefties last night, despite minimal change in approach to my eye. Much of the issue stems from Nola’s four-seam and curveball, which both had barrel rates >10% in the second half last season and have combined to allow 7 barrels this season to lefties. 🤷♂️
It’s a difficult problem to solve Nola’s lefty issues, given the four-seam is touched up pretty much everywhere in the zone, and his curveball can only sit middle down, where it’s also been hit hard. We’re seeing his changeup usage tick up progressively, which I think is the correct compensation. But in hitters’ counts, I think I would pull down his curveball from ~30% and emphasize more four-seam and cutter on the inner third with occasional front-door sinkers. His elevated four-seam hasn’t been working for the last year. It seems like his profile is growing more fragile, but with Cotham on that staff, Nola is still a 3.75/4-ERA pitcher rest of season for me.
Dodgers Ben Casparius may be stretched out to start. His arm angle kicked up ~6° compared to last season, a considerable amount. It’s sent his release height from 6’ to 6.2’. With that shift in arm angle, his three breaking balls all picked up more glove-side movement, and his fastball added more vertical break. The four-seam went from 15” vertical break to 18.4” through his 11 appearances (yes, wow). FanGraphs Stuff+ jumped from 77 to 97, a crazy improvement. His cutter had an interesting change as well, picking up 1 mph and adding 2” glove-side sweep with a comparable amount of drop. FanGraphs Stuff+ pushed it from a 100 to 110. In short, he had a pretty dramatic stuff overhaul that’s made his results not too surprising. 📈
I’d love to see a sinker to right-handed hitters as he stretches into a starting pitcher, particularly because he’s thrown 71% of his pitches on the outer half in right-right matchups (league average is 58%). Given he’s already throwing 2-3 innings and holding velocity well, I think he’ll only tick back ~.5 mph in 5-inning stints. I’m comfortable projecting him as a ~3.75 ERA pitcher. I think the stuff is good. He’s kind of like a Drew Rasmussen clone. The mild concern is that he’s running a 35% chase rate as a reliever, which would be top ~4 in MLB among qualified starters. If that ticks down as he sees hitters more (it will), more men on will tarish his pristine ~4% walk rate.
Mariners Logan Evans debuted Sunday (5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K). He’s 6’4” sinkerballer with low extension and an average release height despite a slightly below average arm angle (~30°). That’s a complex way to say his sinker has a pretty steep approach in the zone. This is due in part to his down location, the low vertical he’s getting on the sinker and his release. His -6.9° vertical approach angle (VAA) Sunday is steeper than 94% of sinkers in MLB. This allowed him to post a 73% ground-ball rate at Triple-A this year on the pitch, which would be around the highest in MLB if it sticks, near names like Jose Soriano and Luis Castillo. 🔱
Although he throws 5 pitches on top of the sinker (four-seam, changeup, cutter, curveball and sweeper), he struggled to miss bats at Triple-A. His 9.2% swinging strike rate at would be lower than 86% of qualified SPs in MLB this season if it holds. And I think we can expect it to take a step back against MLB hitters (~6%?). I think this approach can work, it’s just kind of… boring. I like the depth of mix at this stage of his career. Your 98th percentile outcome is Logan Webb. The optimistic outcome within the realm of possibility is something like … Tanner Houck? Landen Roupp is comparable but far more interesting because he’s missing a ton more bats.
