Shane Baz's Ascension Will Be Glorious

Shane Baz, Dustin May, Luis Gil, Chase Dollander

• Shane Baz has had a disappointing start to his Orioles career, but his peripherals are encouraging (6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K). His FIP sits at 3.71 with a 4.28 xFIP—neither supports a 5.08 ERA continuing. He’s made a pretty dramatic approach change to righties, throwing the cutter he learned last season as his primary offering instead of his four-seam fastball. His cutter usage to righties is up from 14% to 46%, while his four-seamer has fallen from 46% to 28%. His K-BB has jumped from 12% to 20% against righties, and he has more room to grow if he brings back the sinker he threw on occasion last season. He also probably has a good sweeper shape in his back pocket if he needs it.

  • Much of Baz’s poor results early this season have come against lefties, the handedness he dominated last season. His four-seam has been fine, but he’s throwing his curveball more (21% → 34%), and the pitch’s zone whiff has collapsed to 5% from 19% last season. I wonder if this is connected to his lack of changeup confidence. I see what appears to be a few different orientations in 2026, one of which I’ve compared to his 2025 orientation below. His 2026 changeup has the same velocity but has ~300 fewer rpms and 3” less arm-side movement. His location of the pitch has been squarely below the zone compared to his prior changeup, which was more of an away pitch to lefties. Combine all that with his awful chase, whiff, and zone numbers on the pitch, and I think it suggests that he’s tinkering with the offering and hasn’t found it yet. This doesn’t really answer why his curveball isn’t missing bats in the zone, but maybe it’s connected in some way.