Corbin Burnes' Sweeper is Back! Brandon Pfaadt's Recent Lefty Struggles
Corbin Burnes, Brandon Pfaadt, Cole Ragans
Orioles Corbin Burnes’ sweeper is back. He broke out the pitch in early September against the White Sox. He hadn’t thrown since late last season. In his three starts since, the sweeper is his primary breaker and short slider is gone. The sweeper is 84 mph with 16-17” sweep. The shorter slider he threw from April through August is 88 mph with 8” sweep. FanGraphs sees both pitches as similar in grade (both ~140). In a small sample, we’ve seen the sweeper push above a 30% swinging-strike rate while the shorter slider had a 22% swinging-strike rate. Both numbers are exceptional. The 30%+ is unsustainable but a testament to how good the sweeper he’s capable of throwing is. ✂️
I’m surprised by this adjustment so late in the season. Before last year’s All-Star break, his performance against righties was terrible (4.77 FIP). He added a sweeper and adjusted his sinker to counter his poor production and it worked. When he debuted with the Orioles this season, the shorter slider mentioned above was back and the sweeper was gone. Now in his final ~5 starts before the playoffs, he’s brought back the sweeper in place of the shorter slider. Perhaps he’s not comfortable staying healthy throwing the bigger sweeper for a full season? Maybe it’s a game-planning tactic for the postseason? Maybe he’s going to throw both? It’s a small nugget that I’m not 100% certain the reasoning for, especially in the presence of success versus righties prior to the adjustment.
Royals Cole Ragans put the finishing touches on a 5-fWAR season (3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP). Over his last 8 starts, we’ve seen some subtle changes. It starts with an increase in fastball usage from 36% to 46% in non-2-strike situations to righties (compared to his prior 7 starts). His fastball’s swinging-strike rate jumped from 9% to 16% with this increase in usage. In two-strike spots to righties, his curveball jumped from 6% to 16%. He’s also now popping his slider backdoor to righties in two-strike situations, which as you can see in the heatmaps below. This is something he hadn’t done previously. 👑
DBacks Brandon Pfaadt has run into some lefty four-seam issues. His FIP is up a full run against southpaws when comparing mid-August through yesterday to June/July. I don’t see much change in usage or approach, his four-seamer’s xSLG has just climbed from an average .458 to a frightening .812. In the heatmaps below, it’s clear to see he’s giving up damage when he’s trying to elevate the pitch, often not a great sign, but one that didn’t pose much issue for 90% of the year until now. The only adjustment I could fathom here is to pull down the usage from 38% and rely more on his sinker. Otherwise, I’d be curious to see if he has the command to locate the pitch away to lefties for called strikes in concert with elevating it late in count more for whiffs. This is a tough spot given the success he’s had with the approach and the DBacks proximity to the postseason. There is some natural regression to come here, his lefty ERA is 3 runs higher than his lefty FIP, but an adjustment is probably still needed. 🐍
