Miles Mikolas Is For Real. How Logan Gilbert Protects His Four-Seam
Miles Mikolas, Logan Gilbert, DJ Herz, Tylor Megill
Cardinals Miles Mikolas improved his sinker. This stems from a drop in his release height. It was 6.6’ from Opening Day to May 12. In his 3 June starts, it’s down to 6.3’, about ~4” lower. The sinker has subsequently lost 3” vertical break (it’s dropping more), which I would bet is a byproduct of his release lowering rather than a change in the orientation or grip. His sinker’s xSLG in his last 3 starts is below .150 after coasting near .500 for the first 1.5 months of the season. It appears Mikolas has also played around with his location on the rubber. He’s averaged a near 3’ horizontal release (far 3B side of the rubber) in his past 4 starts, a deviation from 2.4’ to start the year. The rubber shift could help with the visual perception of his sinkers, the angle of their approach into the zone, or just a way to change location without changing much else. In support of the last option, he’s not throwing sinkers backdoor to righties much of late. 📈
Driveline Stuff+ decreased the sinker grade from 104 to 99 over his last 4 starts, which is an interesting question of whether the pitching is succeeding simply because it’s different relative to his past (via rubber placement or location), rather than it being a better shape. He’s projected for a league average 4.30 ERA rest of season. While the overall season won’t look good, I have confidence this sinker tweak could improve his stock. I’d take the under on a 4.20 ERA from here until October.
Mariners Logan Gilbert is using his cutter in locations normally reserved for fastballs. Gilbert’s fastball has always been his issue and continues to be this season, even with <25% usage. You’d expect a fastball to be elevated. Gilbert has instead located his four-seam away to righties and his cutter location is higher in the zone than his four-seam on average. Given his four-seam’s struggles (.683 xSLG vs righties over his last 6 starts), I think the approach is interesting. The cutter can work that high up because it has a lot of vertical break, about 4” more than the normal cutter. It’s dropping less than hitters expect. Heatmaps below show this cutter-fastball approach. 🔱
Nationals DJ Herz spun a 13-k gem on Saturday. There’s some room to be pessimistic here. First off, the Marlins are the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching, holding a .299 xwOBA, 20 points below the league average and barely ahead of the White Sox. Second, Driveline’s Command+ has him with minus command, implying that he’s unable to consistently hit his intended target. The only saving grace? He’s left-handed with a cross-fire delivery. That appears to be the hack to have average stuff, meddling command, and still have things play up (Andrew Abbott comes to mind). I’m skeptical it’s going to work long term and see him more as a reliever. 🤷♂️
Mets Tylor Megill has had mixed results since returning from the IL. His underlying results look good—3.52 ERA next to a 2.68 FIP. The most perplexing thing is that his fastball location to righties is middle of the plate, with 55%+ usage, and it holds a swing-miss above 33% (22% is average for four-seamers). Perhaps it has to do with his 98th-percentile extension at almost 7.5 feet. 🍎
To lefties, the pitch takes a hard step back in production, with a swing-miss below 10% and an xSLG over .500. That’s probably the pitch to watch with him going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his cutter usage jump above 20% and the four-seam drop below its present 45% usage. He needs the four-seam to have a pair of pitches he can strike consistently to that handedness. It’s a matter of finding the four-seam’s floor of usage. I think he’s a mid-3s ERA guy rest of season. I like his mix and new splitter.