MiLB Pitching Standouts v1
Chase Dollander, Alex Clemmey, Jacob Misiorowski, Cade Povich, Logan Evans, Alex Clemmey, Adam Mazur, Patrick Copen
Let’s dig through 9 standouts in the minor leagues this season.
Stuff+ data for all pitchers below. For a more in-depth reminder on its limitations, check this out, and thanks to Thomas Nestico for the help with the model. Pitch type standard deviation is 12. So a 112 slider is a “plus” MLB slider, better than 85% of major league sliders. Total Stuff+ considers usage and how each of those pitches contributes to run prevention. A 112 overall Stuff+ is an arsenal that prevents runs at a plus rate in MLB, around the 85th percentile.
All data below is through games on April 22. Stuff+ needs 10 pitches to create a score, so if a pitcher throws a pitch and I don’t have a Stuff+ score below, that’s the reason why. Most of the numbers we’re working with are small sample, especially on results, but I still think we can learn something.
Chase Dollander, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Total Stuff+: 110 | Fastball: 111 | Slider: 110
Overall: Stock up
I had Chase Dollander 29th on my top 40 pitching prospect rankings. I think that’s the correct rank because he’ll pitch half of his games in Coors. But his stuff early this season looks great. His fastball has more ride than he had at college (now 17” instead of 15”) at 96 mph from a 5.5’ release, averaging out to a -3.8° VAA. He’s throwing the pitch a ton (69%) through his first 3 starts, which is often seen early in the year by starting pitchers in various organizations. I don’t think heavy fastball usage is limited to just the “behind-the-curve” orgs and I don’t really think it’s an issue from a development standpoint. The pitch is plus in shape and execution. He’s generating a nutty 70% swing-miss on it (22% is average).
The only small concern is that he’s not in zone with the pitch a ton right now—48% where 55% is average. I don’t have access to all minor league plots below Triple-A, but given the VAA, it’s likely he’s hammering the pitch up so much it’s not registering in zone much. So the zone rate might not be a problem.
The slider he’s shown early this season looks good. 87-88 mph with 4” vertical movement and 5” sweep. Hybrid cutter-slider shape, not a true bullet ball, not enough sweep to be a sweeper, not enough vertical break to be a true cutter. He’s striking this pitch more than his fastball, which suggests at least average command of the offering. It’s also generating above-average swing-miss at 36%. Early indicators are strong on this pitch as well. Stuff+ likes it.
I will probably move him up in my ranks into the 50 Future Value tier. If I’m the Rockies, he’s not at High-A much longer. If I’m any other team in baseball, I’m asking whether they’re scared of his shapes in Coors.