Michael King, The Stater. Allan Winans, Another Low-Velo Braves Arm
Michael King, Allan Winans, Lucas Giolito
Yankees Michael King has had an uptick in stuff. This comes as the Yankees have made him into more of a traditional starting pitcher—10 IP in his last 2 outings. Back around August 1, we saw a Stuff+ uptick driven primarily by velocity. Sinker gained 1 mph and added 2” of drop. Driveline Baseball’s Stuff+ went from 116 to 135. His four-seam didn’t change shape, but added 1.5 mph of velocity. Stuff+ there went from 107 to 132. Release height and extension all look comparable. Main difference in approach is an increase in sinker usage. He threw 29% sinker in June-July compared to 53% in his last 2 starts versus righties. Sinker went from 17% in June-July to 40% over his last 2 starts versus lefties.
The Yankees seem comfortable throwing opposite-handed sinkers (Clarke Schmidt does the same). From a raw total perspective, they’re #3 in baseball throwing right-handed sinkers to left-handed hitters. Giants are #1, Rays and Brewers close. This might say more about breaking ball preference, however, as higher Stuff+ sliders generally come from those with an inability to create carry. 🗽
Braves Allan Winans with an up-and-down start to his career. Yesterday’s start was strong, bringing his season line to a 4.50 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. He’s throwing his sweeper 46% of the time to right-handed hitters and generating a 38% whiff rate with stellar contact quality. FanGraphs Stuff+ there is only an 85 because the velo is low, but as with everything in his repertoire, there’s plus command (backed up by a 109 Location+). Left-handed hitters are more of his problem. He’s throwing his changeup 35%, below-average swing-miss, average contact quality. Sinker, four-seam and slider all mixed in 20%+ but each is getting hit hard despite plus locations.
Braves continue to churn out low-velo arms who out-pitch stuff+. I see Winans as more of a matchup-based righty killer. Visually, he’s a quick arm-speed guy, good extension with a lower-than-average release. I don’t see any outlier release/angle traits like Bryce Elder that Stuff+ may be overlooking, but there has to be some in-box deception that’s causing the ability to drop righty contact quality so much. 🤷♂️
Guardians Lucas Giolito posted the lowest amount of vertical movement on his slider all season in his Saturday start. The pitch had -1.9” vertical break at 83 mph compared to his season average of 1” at 84 mph. This is a subtle change, but I’m pointing it out because it would make sense, in theory, to try and get him around the slider more, have it pick up more drop, and then add more of a true cutter to help him versus left-handed hitting. I heard this speculation from multiple organizations upon Giolito’s DFA from the Angels, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it executed with the Guardians. 🤔