May 3 Pitcher Shape Metrics of Note
Brandon Pfaadt, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Gavin Stone
Dbacks Brandon Pfaadt had a rocky debut. Everything I mentioned in my YouTube breakdown feels pretty accurate. His fastball shape is just ok, just 14” of vertical break (ride) at 93.5 mph. I’m actually surprised it landed as a 99 on FanGraphs Stuff+. Driveline Baseball’s model had it lower. Also doesn’t look like he had that much of a vertical-break increase from playing in the PCL. Slider graded out as a 145, which is strong, his location of it yesterday was a bit rough, just leaving it middle-middle to righties. The raw traits of the changeup are better than the 87 FanGraphs Stuff+ shows in my opinion, drop separation from the four-seam is strong. Location seemed strong as well, in the shadows a lot, Heim and Taveras both took 2-strike, glove-side misses out. He gets the Marlins at home next. I expect better results. 🍼
Royals Zack Greinke tweaked his slider this year. It had 6” vertical break with 8” sweep at 82 mph last year. This year it’s down to 79-80 with just 3” of vertical break and 14” of sweep. He basically turned it into a sweeper. Driveline Baseball’s Stuff+ sees it as a 127, FanGraphs Stuff+ gives it a 96. Also seems like he’s going towards more sweep on the cutter too. It lost an inch of vertical break and gained an inch of sweep at the same velo. Both pitches currently have xwOBAs below .270, were both above .310 last year. 👴
Mets Max Scherzer had a downtick in spin rate per mph yesterday, but it doesn’t seem too abnormal to me. We have to be looking at spin rates relative to velocity, there’s a proven correlation there and it’s the strongest on four-seamers and sinkers. Scherzer averaged 24.9 spin/rpm on his four-seam yesterday, which is just his 3rd lowest since the beginning of 2022. It does, however, look odd relative to his start on 4/19, which was his second-highest four-seam spin/rpm since the beginning of 2022. So the start-to-start difference is one of the biggest drop-offs in his last ~30 outings. I really couldn’t tell you if All this doesn’t take away from the fact that the process on the field in Dodger Stadium to examine him on 4/19 was, uhh, dumb. 🤷♂️
Dodgers Gavin Stone also had a rocky debut. FanGraphs Stuff+ seems more pessimistic about his underlying metrics. Four-seam only gets an 87 Stuff+ despite a 1” vertical-break gain from Triple-A (where he also pitched in PCL parks). He was getting his most whiffs up in the zone at Triple-A, and struggled to hang in that area yesterday. Missed some inside to both lefties and righties more than he had at Triple-A. FanGraphs Stuff+ doesn’t like the changeup, I wouldn’t worry there. 49% whiff in the past. Bones of a good slider are in place, 108 Stuff+, baby sweeper, I’d expect him to command it well. I’m still in here long term, especially if velo trends up as the season goes on, which would easily push the fastball up to average. I’ve been told he’s a slow starter velocity-wise (think Luis Castillo). 🍼