Analyzing Matthew Liberatore's Debut
Matthew Liberatore, Raisel Iglesias, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi
Cardinals Matthew Liberatore made his 2023 debut yesterday with added velocity compared to last year. He averaged 95.2 mph on his four-seam after being 94.4 mph at Triple-A this year and 93.6 last year. Perhaps a call-up spike, which we’ve seen with other arms, but definitely a velo increase. FanGraphs Stuff+ has his four-seam at 79 this year after being 67 last year. His fastball generated a really strong 35% swing-miss rate (22% is average for four-seamers), but it also allowed some hard, fly-ball contact (97 mph average exit velo) against a Brewers team that isn’t good versus LHP. It had a sub-.300 xwOBA against Triple-A hitters this year. There is, however, some disagreement on the four-seam’s Stuff+. Driveline Baseball’s internal model has it as a 132, while their more basic model has it as a 116. Unsure why there is such disparity. Would guess FanGraphs doesn’t think 17” of vertical break is enough from a 6-foot-5 release, while Driveline’s is betting the velo + carry is sufficient? Think I lean FanGraphs here knowing that the four-seam is only generating whiff up/out of the zone versus righties, and doesn’t work well inside/in-zone. Slider and curve look great for him. 🐦
Braves Raisel Iglesias averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball yesterday after dipping down to 92.9 Sunday. It was his highest average fastball velo of the season. FanGraphs Stuff+ gave it the highest grade of the year at 105, it averaged 95 in his prior 3.1 innings. Yesterday’s velo is in line with 2022, but worth noting that his fastball is averaging 1” less vertical break than it did last year, where it had a 108 Stuff+. Seems like his feel there is still off, however. It’s in zone much less, com
mand looks all over the place and swing-miss is way down to 7% after being 29% last year (22% is average for four-seamers). Probably worth noting that this is basically his spring training? Doubt he’s dead given the underlying velo and Stuff+ trends. 🦓
Tigers Eduardo Rodriguez is starting to see some cutter regression after dominating with the pitch for a month. He generated a 29% swing-miss rate on the pitch and a .214 xwOBA in April. That has fallen to a 12% swing-miss in his last 3 starts, including yesterday, where he didn’t generate one swing-miss on 17 cutters thrown. My hypothesis at the beginning of the season was that the jump in effectiveness came from a location adjustment—he started backdooring the pitch to right-handed hitters. Pretty clear to see two separate locations on the pitch after having just one (inside) to righties last year. Given the decrease in the effectiveness of the pitch recently, I’d guess the league has caught up to that adjustment? Location can only take you so far when FanGraphs Stuff+ on the pitch is a 90 (was 87 last year). 🐯
Rangers Nathan Eovaldi might be coming down off a bit of a heater. 0.83 ERA over his last 4 starts with a 3.15 xFIP, been able to avoid HRs aside from yesterday. Shapes and velos all look within the normal range of variation from his first 5 starts to his last 4. The only location change that jumps out is less four-seam up in exchange for more inside usage versus righties. Leaning on his four-seam and cutter a lot despite those being his worst two pitches by Stuff+ 97 and 82 respectively. Another way to look at it is that the 4S + CT are his most location-dependent offerings. He looks like a 4-5 WAR pitcher pretty easily right now. 🤠