May 15 Pitcher Shape Metrics of Note
Noah Syndergaard, Jameson Taillon, Jack Flaherty, Charlie Morton
Dodgers Noah Syndergaard was throwing a slightly different curveball yesterday. In his first 7 starts of the season, the pitch was 77 mph with -1” vertical break (lift) with 11” sweep. 28% swing-miss with a .317 xwOBA suggests it was missing bats but allowing a bit too much damage when contacted. FanGraphs Stuff+ at 101. Yesterday, the pitch added 4” of vertical break (lift) and had an extra 2” sweep at 79 mph. Generated 2 whiffs on 3 swings. FanGraphs Stuff+ on it adjusted up to 119. My guess is that this was an orientation change. The spin direction out of hand didn’t change at all, but the inferred spin direction based on the movement of the pitch at the plate was materially higher than it had been in his prior starts. I think this is a sweeper and not a curveball. Early results seem good. Reminds me a bit of the vertical movement they added to Dustin May’s curveball recently. 💈
Cubs Jameson Taillon’s cutter seems to be progressively gaining drop. In his first 3 starts of the season, the pitch had 14” vertical movement and 3” sweep/cut at 90 mph. FanGraphs Stuff+ at 94. He was getting a decent amount of miss, xwOBA was a bit high for a cutter, but not egregiously so. Then he hit the IL. In his two outings post-IL stint, the pitch looked the same. Yesterday, the pitch was down to 9” of vertical movement with 5” sweep/cut at 89 mph. Makes sense for the pitch to lose a small amount of velo with a drop increase. FanGraphs Stuff+ at 97, so it basically thinks the shape he threw yesterday is about as effective as his prior, more back-spinny shape. Results weren’t great in a small sample, no whiffs (which is odd for a pitch with more drop) and contact quality seemed pretty variable, average exit velo at 91 with a wide disparity of launch angles. 🐻
Cardinals Jack Flaherty had an improved changeup yesterday. He only threw the pitch 16 times in his prior 8 starts. The pitch had 8” vertical movement and 10” arm-side movement at 87 mph. Only 5” of drop separation from his four-seamer and only 6 mph slower. Ideally want one of those differentials to be near 10 mph or inches. Didn’t generate any whiffs on it, but pitch was non-competitive most of the time. 63 Stuff+ on FanGraphs. Yesterday he threw his changeup 10 times, it was down to 85 mph and only had 4” of vertical break. Drop difference up to 9”, velo difference up to 9 mph. FanGraphs Stuff+ up to 81. Got one whiff on it, not in the zone much, but the frequency at which he threw it and the added drop suggests to me he found something with the pitch. Something to keep an eye on. 🐦
Braves Charlie Morton had his lowest zone rate of the season on his curveball (29%) and yet generated his highest swing-miss rate on the pitch this year (63%). Not much of a shape difference with the pitch, picked up 1” sweep relative to the average sweep in his prior starts. 👑