May 12 Pitcher Shape Metrics of Note
Eury Perez, Spencer Strider, James Paxton, Michael Kopech, Chris Bassitt
Marlins Eury Perez had a strong debut. Fastball grades out as his strongest pitch per FanGraphs Stuff+ (132). 97-98 with 18.5” vertical break (carry) will do that. The swinging strike rate on the pitch was slightly below average, however, and it caused his hardest in-air contact. This lines up with what I saw in the Double-A numbers, where he had a high xwOBA on the pitch despite fantastic shape. Maybe this is because his primary location of the pitch is actually down-away to right-handed hitters? I presume this is to set up a lane for his slider (really a cutter) to work off. But given a fastball’s natural miss is arm side, it’s going to sneak back over the plate occasionally and create damage with that down-away target. 🐠
The thing to watch moving forward is whether his bigger slider, which is being tracked as a curveball right now, picks back up the glove-side movement it had at Double-A. Averaged 9” sweep there and only 2” yesterday. Product of the MLB ball? Maybe he adjusted the pitch throughout the course of the season and I only saw an average?
Braves Spencer Strider may be making a slider adjustment. First 6 starts of the season his slider averaged 0” vertical break and 5” sweep at 85 mph. FanGraphs Stuff+ at 101. Swing-miss at 51% (18 pct points above the average for sliders). In his last two starts, the pitch has picked up more velocity and thus backspin. Vertical movement is up to 3” at 86 mph and the sweep on the pitch has remained the same. Swing-miss rate has improved to 69%, nearly double the average for sliders. His location on the pitch has also been really dialed in, basically never missing up into the middle third of the plate. FanGraphs Stuff+ hasn’t changed, leaving it at a 102. Generally, stuff models are going to prefer drop, so I think he has struck the balance where the slider at 84 with more drop is basically even with the 86 mph one that has more backspin. Results on the most recent slider look better. 👑
Red Sox James Paxton hasn’t really pitched since 2020. So it’s always good to check in on what’s changed. The biggest thing is that he averaged 96 mph on the fastball compared to 92 in 2020. This is actually harder than his 2017-2019 velo when he was a 3-WAR pitcher (where he averaged 95). His release height is also up to 6.1’ after it progressively fell from 6.3’ to 5.8’ between 2017 and 2020. Stuff+ likes the fastball, giving it a 115 compared to 90 back in 2020. Breaking ball shapes look relatively consistent. 🧟♂️
White Sox Michael Kopech toggled back to his slider from earlier in the season yesterday. In his start on 5/7 the pitch was 83 mph with 8” sweep. Yesterday it was back to 86 mph with 5” sweep, which lines up with the starts he has made between 4/15 and 5/2. His Stuff+ remains stellar, I feel like he’s been tinkering recently to find his best slider, which has plagued him versus right-handed hitters all season. Could be a case of results > Stuff+ here. 🤷♂️
Blue Jays Chris Bassitt threw a complete-game shutout while averaging his highest sinker velocity of the season at 92.6 mph. He averaged 91.5 mph in his prior starts. FanGraphs Stuff+ was 86 on the sinker prior to yesterday, where it went up to 101. 🔥