Is Sandy Alcantara Fixed? Shohei Ohtani is Back

Sandy Alcantara, Shohei Ohtani, Chris Bassitt

• Marlins Sandy Alcantara’s strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB) has improved from 4% in April and May to 15% over his last 4 starts in June. Against righties, his four-seam usage has dropped from 22% to 14%. He’s pushed his curveball usage up from 13% to 26%. The curveball usage increase has been concentrated in the first or second pitch of an at-bat, jumping from 9% to 25%. He’s also improved his K-BB from -4% to 7% against lefties, comparing once again April and May to June. He’s doing a better job of keeping his four-seam out of the bottom of the zone (see below). And similar to his attack against righties, he’s using fewer fastballs in the first or second pitch of an at-bat, pushing his slider from 17% to 32% in June. He’s also pulled his changeup back from 39% to 18% in two-strike spots, a more interesting move given the pitch’s success. 🐠

  • I’m still not worried about the right-handed hitter approach. I wrote a month ago about how that would likely regress to good, and it has. He’s on the right track against lefties, but the peripherals aren’t 100% convinced. His xFIP is still above 5 against lefties in these 4 June starts, his swinging-strike rate remains below average, but he’s been in zone more and cut his barrel rate back below average (now 7%). If he can be a sub-4 xFIP arm up until the trade deadline, I think his value is mostly repaired, and an acquiring team will likely see more fixes. The Marlins are tracking for the fewest four-seamer and sinkers ever thrown in a season (on a rate basis), so I’d wonder whether another organization trusts Sandy’s innate fastball command with less centralized targets and can unlock the 2023 version of the righty.

Sandy Alcantara’s four-seam location to lefties, comparing April/May 2025 to June 2025. It’s a small sample, but notice the absence of pitches down in the zone in June (this is good!).

• Dodgers Shohei Ohtani has now thrown two innings as an opener after missing all of 2024. He averaged 96.8 mph on his fastball in 2023, 99 mph in his 2025 debut, and 97.9 yesterday. As he’s stretched out, I’d guess his sitting velocity is mostly where it was in 2023. He threw 3 cutters and splitters in this second opener outing, two pitches we saw only one of combined in his debut. His arm angle is down about 6° compared to 2022 and 2° compared to 2023, which doesn’t seem to have affected his shapes, but is a theme we’ve seen among names like Spencer Strider and Eury Perez. As Pitching Ninja pointed out, Ohtani is also working from a full delivery with no runners on (link). 👑

  • I was most curious whether the Dodgers would push him toward a shorter breaking ball. Ohtani’s sweeper was his most-used pitch in 2023, and the Dodgers aren’t a team that has a lot of starting pitchers with breaking balls. Right now, it looks like most of Ohtani’s mix from 2023 is intact.

• Blue Jays Chris Bassitt has bucked his lefty problems from the second half of last year. His 5.44 xFIP and 11% K-BB have moved to 3.70 and 16%, respectively. He’s doing a better job keeping his sinker out of the middle (see below). As he’s done that, he’s been in the zone more than last season (46% to 53% zone rate). This is probably the biggest reason he’s cut his walk rate from 9% last year to 5% this year. Most of his even-count and two-strike usage looks similar year over year. His behind-in-count sinker usage is up from 37% to 47%, and it’s allowing a .500+ xwOBAcon. Perhaps there's room to tinker and unlock more success in those hitter-advantage spots. 🇨🇦

  • Bassit has also been dancing around the rubber since the beginning of last year. From April 2024 to his last start of August 2024, he was more on the first-base side. His release averaged 1.5’ from the center line of the pitching rubber. Then he moved toward the third-base side of the rubber (2.8’ from the center line). He kept the late 2024 position into this season before flipping back to the first-base side in his June 5th outing. It could be a comfort thing, or as Alex Chamberlain wrote for FanGraphs, a way for him to play with location.

Chris Bassitt’s sinker location to lefties, comparing 2024 to 2025. Notice how the concentration of red (highest frequency) has moved more toward the outer third of the plate.