Sandy Alcantara, Corbin Burnes Concerns? Eovaldi's CG Shoutout

Sandy Alcantara, Corbin Burnes, Nathan Eovaldi, Shane Baz, Shane Smith

• Marlins Sandy Alcantara’s velocity is down ~1-2 mph across the board. He’s been underwhelming to start the season. Versus lefties, he’s pulled back on his four-seam fastball (down from 28% to 16%, really pushing his curveball usage instead (jumped from 3% to 26%). His slider is down from 27% to 7% versus righties. 🐠

  • The Marlins staff tweaked a few usage patterns mentioned above but left him mostly untouched from a shapes standpoint post-surgery. I am curious why his chase is down from 35% in 2023 to 24% this season, a considerable amount. He said he’s had trouble recovering as quickly as he did pre-surgery. I’d guess the goal is to have him locked in come June/July for the deadline. It’s tough to scrutinize these early outings much while he builds back up.

• DBacks Corbin Burnes’ cutter velocity was down 1.5 mph yesterday compared to last season. 93.8 mph on his cutter is his lowest average velocity on the pitch in a game since July 2023. He didn’t seem to care, throwing the pitch 66%. It’s the 6th time he’s eclipsed 60% cutter usage in a game over his last 65 starts. 🐍

  • Last year, it seemed like Burnes’ intent was to push the velocity on his cutter. It was his hardest average cutter velocity (95.3 mph) in a single season across his career (by a smidge). I wonder if the intent this year is to cut the pitch more and pick back up the 3”+ glove-side movement it has had in every year prior. Curious to follow the shape on this pitch throughout the season and compare to prior years.

• Rangers Nathan Eovalid’s fastball velocity is down a bit from last year. He sat 95.4 mph last season. He was 94.6 mph on Opening Day and 93.6 mph yesterday in his complete-game shutout of the Reds (cold, rainy game). I don’t see anything materially different from a shapes perspective. 🤠

  • He’s been tough to analyze from a usage perspective because he’s zigged and zagged in these two outings. He threw 59% curveball and splitter yesterday, the highest combined usage of those two pitches he’s had in a single game in his career. On Opening Day he threw a bunch of curveballs. It’s worth watching his velocity to see if it bounces back, but he’s finding ways to work without it.

• Rays Shane Baz threw 35% curveballs in his first outing of 2025, a career high at the major-league level. He also zoned the pitch a staggering 55%, which is the average fastball zone rate in MLB. The biggest usage flip came against righties, where his four-seamer fell from 49% last year to 24% yesterday. We can’t assume less four-seamer is now the norm, but my gut suggests his four-seam usage will be lower than the 49% he threw it last season. ☀️

Shane Baz’s curveball grip

• White Sox Shane Smith’s changeup is filthy. He averaged 90.5 mph with -.1” vertical break and 15.5” arm-side movement from his average 5.8’ release. There were just 2 other changeups thrown 50+ times last season that averaged harder than 90 mph with below 1” vertical break (aka, hard with a bunch of drop): Jose Soriano and Victor Vodnik. It’s likely a kick-changeup for Smith. I will keep an eye out for the grip. 🤮