Ryan Weathers Electric in Return. Patrick Corbin Regression Coming
Ryan Weathers, Patrick Corbin, Dean Kremer
Marlins Ryan Weathers returned from his IL stint with stellar stuff. I wrote about him as a preseason sleeper after eye-popping metrics in spring. His fastball looks considerably better than last year. It added 2.5 mph of average velocity (sitting 97.5 mph yesterday) with another inch of vertical break (now ~16.5” from his 5.9’ release). He’s also added a bullet slider at 92 mph with 6” vertical break and 0” arm-side movement. He still has his sinker, but he threw it much less to righties yesterday, leaning instead on his four-seam fastball and evening out the usage of his sweeper and changeup, both of which put up gaudy whiff numbers. 👑
This is the Weathers we expected from the underlying spring training data we got teased by. If he can stay on the mound, I think it’s a pretty easy mid-3s ERA projection with some upside for more. This much of a fastball improvement for a pitcher will do wonders.
Rangers Patrick Corbin has a new changeup (grip below). The pitch is 78 mph with 6” vertical break and 9” arm-side movement. It has less arm-side and is 2 mph slower than the changeups he has thrown in the past. Grip comparison shows he changed from a four-seam to a two-seam orientation. The movement is pretty variable (it almost looks like a splitter), and the chase isn’t above-average, but it’s running a huge 54% whiff rate. He’s front-dooring righties with sinkers this year instead of exclusively throwing them away like last year, and his four-seam is mostly up-away as opposed to up-inside. The larger mix change came last year when he started mixing a cutter in more to righties, which the Rangers have embraced. 🥶
Unfortunately, the regression monster is coming for Corbin. 3.35 ERA with a 4.81 FIP this season isn’t sustainable. His BABIP and strand rate are both inflated above normal. He’s more like a mid-4s ERA pitcher rest of season, but it’s fair to say the tweaks have kept him from completely bottoming out.

Orioles Dean Kremer is struggling against right-handed hitters. His K-BB% has been cut in half to just 7% this season. He’s running a 41% fly-ball rate on his sinker this season after holding it below 20% last year, an odd development, especially for a pitch he’s holding around ~25% usage. It’s mostly a hitter-count pitch for him, so I expect to see some damage, but the pitch is generally tagged when middle of the plate. His cutter looks good otherwise (67% ground-ball rate with a 17% strikeout rate). He’s just forced to throw four-seamers and sinkers to keep hitters honest on the outer-third and have something else he can strike. Those are the pitches that usually cause issues, which is ironic given the FanGraphs Stuff+ grades on both offerings are above-average. 🤷♂️
Versus lefties, Kremer cut his four-seam usage from 42% to 31% and nearly doubled his curveball to 25%. The biggest jump in curveball usage has come in hitters’ counts, where it’s tripled to 30%. There’s a lot less two-strike splitter usage as well, and his curveball and cutter are making up for it. I think the curveball usage is a good idea for Kremer, and I’d try to find the cutter ceiling given the pitch’s performance. It’s hard to project anything more than a mid-4s ERA pitcher here, especially with the dip in swing-miss.
Great notes, as usual! Your attention to detail on his seam orientation is incredible. Did you notice, also, that it appears the ball rests on the knuckle of his thumb in the new grip (as opposed to further toward the tip in the old grip)? Is that something that normally varies pitch to pitch? Something that is intentional? Something that doesn't affect the flight?