Bryce Miller Loves His Curveball. AJ Smith-Shawver is Perplexing
Bryce Miller, AJ Smith-Shawver, Roki Sasaki, Bailey Ober
Mariners Bryce Miller has pushed the usage of his death-ball style knuckle curve this season and stopped throwing the cutter he broke out last season. This curveball has more than doubled from the 9% he threw it during the second half last season to 19% this year. It’s ~1 mph slower with more drop than last year (3-4” less vertical break). It has also nearly become his main offering to left-handed hitters as his four-seam usage has fallen from 44% to 30%. This curve has a league-average zone rate for the pitch type with above-average chase (39%) and above-average swing-miss (43%)—fantastic. Versus righties, his approach is similar to last year (four-seam, sinker, sweeper), but this curveball is being used 10%+. 🔱
I want to monitor his righty whiff rate, which has fallen below 20% after hanging above 25% last year. Most of it stems from his four-seam not missing bats as much as it did last season. There’s some subtle contact quality regression as well on the pitch (small sample). The average location of his four-seam is elevated more this year. He’s throwing fewer middle-up zone-finders that run through bats. Perhaps it’s having some effect on the rest of his approach? I do like the revision in his lefty cadence, however. When you cover one hole, maybe another emerges?
Braves AJ Smith-Shawver made some changes. His extension is up 4” compared to last season. He’s been able to maintain the ~17.5” vertical break he had last season at Triple-A (15.8” is average). I don’t like what’s going on with his slider. The pitch looks like a bad cutter from a shape standpoint, needing ~3 more ticks to be relevant. It sits 87 mph with 10” vertical break and 1” glove-side movement. I think the shape he was throwing last year at Triple-A was better. That was 85 mph with 5.5” vertical break and 4” glove-side. In short, his breaking balls have regressed compared to last year. I think the optimal approach here is a pair of power-style breaking ball shapes, given his low spin capacity. Or honestly just anything that he can throw 86-88 mph with reasonable drop (not what he’s throwing right now). 🤷♂️
Smith-Shawver is leaning on his splitter a ton—38% compared to 24% at Triple-A last season. The pitch has lost 2.5 mph, but it picked up 5” arm-side movement, turning into a beautiful offering visually. Throwing a pitch with a zone rate around 30% as your primary offering is a reliever approach. And to be honest, that is what he has looked like for the past calendar year. It still feels like there’s a lot of work needed to solidify our starting pitcher dreams. Step one might be trying to elevate more fastballs (see below).
Dodgers Roki Sasaki put together a respectable outing in Philly (4 IP, 3 H, ER, 2 BB, 4 K). He was averaging more drop on his slider yesterday compared to his prior 3 outings. His slider’s vertical break was 0” with 11” glove-side, but it averaged -5” vertical break and 13” glove-side yesterday. This is more drop, likely due to him clipping the front of the ball more at release. Despite this change, I think it’s just variance on the offering and not something intentionally different. You can see a grip comparison below to confirm the Dodgers haven’t messed with it (yet). I’m confident adjustments are coming. I would guess some kind of harder cutter/slider and a sinker. I don’t think this slider is going to play much of a factor for him this season, but I don’t mind it as a pitch to bury. 🎥
Twins Bailey Ober with a rough start to 2025 (6 IP, 9 ER, 5 BB). His velocity is down 1 mph on his fastball and 3 mph on his slider. The latter decline is odd given he’s using the slider more than he did last season. He’s backed off his sweeper and curveball, using them more as afterthoughts. He also threw a few sinkers yesterday in what feels like an attempt to salvage something positive.
I won’t show the heatmaps below, but in yesterday’s outing, he was elevating his four-seam so much, the zone rate on the pitch pushed below 50%. While the league average four-seam zone rate is around 55%, Ober fell below 50% just 5 times last season. He’s a zone-pounder. It’s easy for me to say “find your command,” but I’m more curious about why the slider is so much slower than last year, despite a marginal fastball velo decline. Another thing to monitor in subsequent outings. 😬
Smith-Shawver doesn't seem to trust his stuff at all. Hesitant to work in the zone. Yesterday the Marlins hit three first pitch hitters in the first four batters that resulted in double, warning track flyout, homer.
Watched the Miller start and while he pitched pretty well, it seemed he was almost too reliant on that curve. And by the fourth inning SF seemed to figure it out (2 doubles and another key hit off it during their rallies in the 4th and 6th). It feels like the fastball used to be better?