The Reinvention of Luis L. Ortiz. Dylan Cease's Velocity Bump

Luis L. Ortiz, Dylan Cease, Brent Honeywell

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• Pirates Luis L. Ortiz has remade himself. He has a 2.57 ERA with a 3.11 FIP this season (60+ IP), making 4 of his last 5 appearances as a starting pitcher. Last season he held a 4.78 ERA with a 5.57 FIP in 86.2 IP. He has lowered his release 5” (which is considerable) compared to last season. This has had a considerable impact on his sinker. It has 4” less induced vertical break (dropping more), something we see often with a lower slot. Driveline Stuff+ has it as a 117, his best pitch. 🏴‍☠️

  • Another notable addition is a cutter he’s throwing ~30% to lefties. It’s averaging 91 mph with 7” vertical break and 1” glove-side movement, standard cutter shape but slightly harder. Driveline Stuff+ of 114, a plus pitch. He allowed lefties to slug over .500 against him last season with much of the damage coming on his four-seam and slider. Driveline Stuff+ of 114 on the new cutter. The pitch has effectively replaced his now extinct changeup. I’m intrigued with Ortiz. He’s always struggled to miss bats, but his control is good, the new cutter looks great, and his sinker is an objectively better pitch from his new lower slot. His four-seam is hard but the shape is bad, but even that appears to be more successful from the lower release. I’ll continue to enjoy following pitchers with 5+ ERAs over large samples because something dramatic always changes.

• Padres Dylan Cease had an 11-start stretch with a 5.88 ERA from mid-May to early July. His last two starts pre and post All-Star break have been stellar: 13 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 21 K. His velo jumped from 96.7 mph during that 11-start stretch to 98.2 mph in his last 2 outings. With that velo bump, he’s pushed the usage of the pitch from 43% to 50%. This is the hardest average fastball velocity he’s had since September 2020, where he averaged 98.8 mph for one outing. The last time he averaged above 98 in an individual outing was June 2022. This is something we haven’t seen in a while with Cease and I think it’ll be as simple as velocity if he goes on a strong second-half run. 🔥

• Dodgers Brent Honeywell might be leaning into his screwball. His career average usage of the pitch is 8%. In an individual game prior to joining the Dodgers earlier this month, the most he’d used the pitch was 20%, only eclipsing 15% 5 times. In his last 2 outings with the Dodgers, he’s thrown the pitch 22% and 41%, the two highest screwball usage games of his career. The Dodgers continue to exploit usage changes with pitchers. There’s always been a stigma with the screwball blowing up arms. I have no idea if it has any merit, but until then, the Dodgers will likely find the best version of Honeywell by leaning on one of the most unique pitches in baseball. 🖖