Who is Kyle Hart? How to Unlock Griffin Canning, Brady Singer

Kyle Hart, Griffin Canning, Brady Singer

The long offseason is upon us. My posting volume will be light until we get to Spring Training. I’m planning a comprehensive pitching development organizational ranking (December/January projected release). In the meantime, I’ll occasionally shoot out posts like this one highlighting my thoughts on free-agent signings or trades.

Kyle Hart, LHP, NC Dinos → ???

Here’s a quick drop of Hart’s data from the KBO this year before we discuss…

Release Height: 5.5’ | Extension: 5.9’ | Release Side: 2.6’

Fastball (47%): 90.8 mph, 12” iVB, 15” arm-side, 55% zone, 18% swing-miss

Slider (29%): 82.8 mph, 7” iVB, 9” sweep, 63% zone, 28% swing-miss

Changeup (19%): 81.8 mph, 5.5” iVB, 16” arm-side, 40% zone, 39% swing-miss

Much of Hart’s release and velocity data compares well to what he flashed at Triple-A with the Tacoma Rainiers in 2023. That gives me some pause given his results that year were poor. The main thing I’m trying to square is whether his fastball changed. With the Mariners he had two shapes—a sinker and a four-seam. The sinker was his primary, with the four-seam used more to left-handed hitters.

Based on the “fastball” data I show above, his 2024 KBO average is between his four-seam and sinker shapes from 2023. My best guess is that the difference in MLB vs KBO baseballs has affected his sinker shape (more lift) and he’s mostly ditched the four-seamer. Regardless, the pitch won’t grade out well in models either way. He turned it into a contact neutralizer and held a 2.69 ERA in 167 innings with the KC Dinos. Don’t ask him to get whiffs in the zone with it. Sure, the velocity was up 1 mph and he touched 93-94, but it’s still below-average MLB velocity.

He has also reworked his slider. The velo of the pitch appears down relative to his fastball compared to 2023, but he’s getting more lift and sweep. Like his fastball, it isn’t missing bats, but KBO hitters struggled to barrel it.

If this profile works, it’s because of his changeup. This pitch was his best offering with the Mariners by far and it continues to be the only pitch in his mix with the ability to generate swing-miss and chase. It had a 40% swing-miss alongside a 43% chase, both numbers above the MLB average, if he can hold these results versus better hitters.

I scoffed at Erick Fedde’s KBO data before he came over and posted a 3.4-fWAR season. There were also reports that he worked with Logan Webb and added his sweeper and changeup. Those are details I should’ve taken more seriously. The two things I could be underrating are his 6-foot-5 height and below-average, 5-foot-6 release height. Both could be enough to discredit Stuff+ models suggesting he is terrible (which I’m confident they will). Matthew Boyd is a good comp here, but we also have track record of Boyd succeeding and we don’t with Hart.

If I had skin in the game, I would wager he’s worse than a league-average starting pitcher in MLB this season (4.40 ERA or higher). For a rebuilding team with rotation needs (White Sox) the projected $6-8m AAV contract could work. If you hit the nuts, he’s shipped for a Fedde-like return at the deadline. That would be a success. If he’s bad, you throw him enough to get to 1 WAR and he’s a marginally positive asset. I don’t think he makes much sense for a contender unless I’m blind to something like I was with Fedde.

Griffin Canning, Angels → Braves → ???

The primary development action for Canning should be to find the 1 mph of velocity he lost between 2023 and 2024 (duh). Beyond that, I’m curious how any acquiring team views his breaking balls after he was non-tendered by the Braves.

Canning broke out a fantastic sweeper in his final 2 starts of the 2024 season. Statcast has this grouped within the gyro slider he threw for most of the season, but the sweeper shape was notably different (here). The best 2-3 he threw averaged 85-86 mph with 12” sweep and -1” vertical break. This shape should grade in most stuff models as an above-average slider. It’s ~4 mph harder than the average sweeper with nearly identical movement. Canning has struggled against right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I expect an acquiring team to develop this pitch and present it as a consistent weapon versus righties. The evolution of this sweeper might force a rework of his curveball into a more vertical weapon. This would allow it to exist versus left-handed hitters, where his current curveball shape proves useless.

Canning’s inherent command of both his gyro slider and changeup suggests he can survive with even less than the 38% four-seam fastball he threw last season. He zoned his fastball more than anything in his mix (48%), but his slider, curveball, and changeup all held zone rates above 46%. The Braves had shown a propensity to maximize value in acquired MLB arms (Reynaldo Lopez) and have some internal success stories too (Grant Holmes). I was interested to see what they could do. But now we have a chance for him to end up in a sharper pitching development organization (Brewers?). I’m comfortable projecting Canning as the 2023 version of himself (4-4.20 ERA) rather than the 4.50 current projection FanGraphs Steamer gives him. My confidence will increase if the suggested breaking ball tweaks are executed.

Brady Singer, RHP, Royals → Reds

It doesn’t seem like anybody is excited about Singer pitching in Great American Ballpark. He’s a sinker-baller with a below-league-average ground-ball rate landing in a park that juiced home runs more than any other park in MLB over the last three seasons.

Last year, Singer cut his ERA by almost 2 full runs thanks to fewer sinkers, more sliders, and the emergence of his four-seam fastball. Only his slider grades above average by Stuff+, making the sweeper he’s occasionally flashed but never leaned on heavily a tantalizing weapon to project more usage of versus right-handed hitters. But righties weren’t Singer's primary issue last year. Lefties gave him more trouble. That’s a tougher puzzle to crack. Look below at Singer’s sinker location to lefties compared to where he gave up damage…

Overlapping red concentrations in the above heatmaps suggests he’s throwing a pitch where it allows damage (not great). There are paths out of using his sinker ~40% to lefties. He could lean on more four-seam up in the zone. It doesn’t miss bats and performed worse than the league average when contact was made, even when he located it up. His changeup is pretty useless, so I could envision some kind of splitter here to kill vertical break, especially given his lower arm angle. But the easiest path is to push the slider usage above 45% and steal as much as possible at the bottom of the zone, sacrificing some walks in exchange for more swing-miss given his slider is the only pitch he has versus lefties that can push above a 7% swinging-strike rate. We’ll see what path Derek Johnson and his staff take. Adding a splitter and leaning on sliders to lefties could keep him around a 4.20-4.40 ERA. If they keep things similar to 2023, I’m skeptical it’ll be a soft landing.