New Pitches... Already?! And a Trade to Analyze
Kevin Gausman, Alex Faedo, Cristopher Sanchez
Kevin Gausman, New Cutter
Last season was a wake-up call for Gausman. After a 3-year run of pure domination, he lost 10 percentage points on his strikeout rate and posted his worst xFIP since 2017. That may have prompted him to consider expanding his historically small repertoire beyond the sinker he toyed with to righties last year. The new toy may be a cutter (source).
The potential motivation for this change is to take pressure off his four-seam to left-handed hitters. His usage has increased from 51% to 57% since 2022, contrasting with the league’s trend to push away from four-seam usage. He also sat under 94 mph last year for the first time since 2019. The lowest four-seam usage he’s had in a season was 49% in 2022. I wonder if this year it falls below 45% in total with the introduction of this cutter. It should naturally take away from his 70% four-seam usage in behind-in-count situations to left-handed hitters.
I wouldn’t expect this pitch to grade out well in stuff models. He has a natural inability to create quality breaking ball shapes. For example, his slider has had only 1 season in the last 12 with a positive run value. But if the pitch can exist in the 90-100 Stuff+ window, where all of his pitches sat last year, the utility of the offering will eclipse the raw grade. We’ll see how much the pitch is used to righties outer third as well. If there’s a path back to a ~3.30 ERA, this is it (velo would help).
Alex Faedo, Tigers → Rays
It’s become a tradition that whenever the Rays acquire a relevant pitcher, I write about it. Faedo has accumulated 175.2 IP in MLB with a 4.80 FIP—not great. He has pretty even splits in his career, but struggled versus right-handed hitters last season from a barrels standpoint. He mixes a slider, four-seam and changeup to each handedness with a peripheral sinker for righties. Converting the majority of his outings to relief last season pushed his velocity up 1-2 mph on his four-seam and slider. His changeup jumped 3 mph and lost ~5” of induced vertical break (dropping more) thanks to an orientation change which you can see below.
His new changeup’s whiff rate nearly doubled versus lefties in 2024. The net performance of the pitch was mediocre, due in part to a pair of barrels he allowed to right-handed hitters. My gut says this pitch is better than the results and Stuff+ suggest and perhaps the Rays agree. Average MLB changeups from Faedo’s slot are, on average, 2 mph slower, and have both less run and drop than his new orientation has given him.
The biggest development opportunity exists within his slider. It was his best-performing pitch last season, but I don’t think it’s particularly good. It sits just 83 mph with just 3” sweep. FanGraphs Stuff+ has it in the 31st percentile among pitchers with 50 IP last season. 69% of sliders in MLB graded out better. It had success versus left-handed hitters last season but has been more average versus righties. One option is to force the velocity up and see how the pitch performs with more lift or induced vertical break. The other option is the entertain a sweeper to help versus right-handed hitters specifically.
Faedo made a hard cut to his four-seam usage last season in favor of this slider, which I like. The next level is reconciling why the changeup hasn’t performed better and unlocking another level on his slider. Let’s see what the Rays do.
Cristopher Sanchez, New… Something?
Sanchez alluded to incorporating a new pitch when interviewed this offseason (source). Nick Pollack of Pitcher List speculated it could be a cutter, which Statcast says he threw 3 of last season (here’s one, although I think this is just an accidental variant of his usual slider). Everything Sanchez throws to righties—sinker, changeup, slider—is down in the zone. Thinking from a “what quadrants of the zone can you touch” standpoint, it makes sense to incorporate a cutter up and inside to right-handed hitters. Even if the raw specs on the pitch aren’t great, it could have a compounding effect within his repertoire, particularly helping his changeup’s swing-miss on the outer third.
Sanchez’s main issue last season was his sinker to righties. He allowed 16 barrels and posted an xwOBA above .410. It’s likely due to aggressive locations inside the strike zone, which help limit walks but have a byproduct of barrels. I’m not convinced a cutter alone will help this issue unless the sinker location is refined (see his present location below). The logical spot to move it is similar to what teammate Ranger Suarez does—mostly away but occasionally inside.
What if it’s not a cutter? The shape of a proposed cutter would likely exist close on a movement plot to his depth slider. Could that cause issues? On the theme of attacking a different part of the zone than down, he could toy with a four-seam fastball to righties. I worry the approach of the pitch would be too mediocre to warrant more than matchup-based usage (think Logan Webb). He doesn’t spin the ball well enough for a sweeper or curveball, though the former may work as an early-count strike stealer to help any intra-game decay on his sinker he experiences.
Each of the last two seasons, Sanchez has thrown more changeups. Given his usage was up to 36% last year and the pitch’s 35% zone rate, it’s difficult to see usage pushing higher than 40-45% without sacrificing his 6% walk rate. Let’s see what Caleb Cotham and the Phillies have up their sleeve. I’d be surprised if nothing is done with his sinker’s location to righties.