Jose Butto Breakout? The Mystifying Javier Assad
Jose Butto, Javier Assad, Brayan Bello, Bailey Ober
Mets Jose Butto’s arm angle is down from 61° last season to 54° this season. The result is a release height that’s 2.5” lower than last year. Despite the release drop, his fastball shape is nearly identical—15.5” vertical break. That’s marginally above-average ride for his current 5.4’ release. I do think something with this arm-angle change is driving the 16% swinging-strike rate on his four-seam, up from just 9.5% last year. Driveline Stuff+ hasn’t budged off an average grade (101). 🍎
His slider has turned into more of a bullet slider, down 5” in vertical break (more drop) and 2 mph in velocity from last year. Driveline Stuff+ at 100 and it’s generating a 47% swing-miss rate (33% is average). He’s also ditched his curveball from last year for a sweeper—82 mph with -7” vertical break and 13” sweep. That’s about 7” less vertical break than the average sweeper (dropping a lot more than average). You could argue it’s still a curveball based on shape, but notably different from his 2023 curve, 10” more sweep and 3 mph harder. Driveline Stuff+ of 91.
Cubs Javier Assad has a bit of Merrill Kelly in him. He’s throwing 4 pitches >10% to each handedness of hitter and Driveline’s Command+ metric has him locating 5 of his 6 pitches at average or better rates. His velocity is down ~1 mph across the board from last season and it doesn’t seem to matter. Virtually no usage change here. To righties, he’s elevating his cutter more up-away than down-away. To lefties, his sinker has been more up-away this season than inside. 🐻
Peripherals are skeptical here, holding a 3.73 FIP next to his 2.16 ERA. We had a similar trend last year where a 4.29 FIP accompanied 3.05 ERA in 100 innings. The more innings we have, the more ERA matters, but we’re still far from the point of 100% confidence he’s doing something to outperform his ERA by a full run. If we look back in another 150+ innings and see the same thing, I’d attribute it to the deep mix preventing a singular reliance behind in counts and command.
Red Sox Brayan Bello isn’t throwing his four-seam fastball anymore. He’s become a pure sinker-slider-changeup pitcher to both handedness. Oppo-handed sinkers might be taboo but when they have enough drop, it works. Bello’s has 4” vertical break, which is 4” less than the average sinker (Bello’s drops more). Lefty location for the sinker has been down or inside, which should work. Sinker to righties has been more up in the zone, which has caused some issues. Below is his sinker location to each handedness of hitter. 🎯
Twins Bailey Ober’s 9-run first outing looks like a blip. He has a new cutter that’s 86 mph with 5” vertical break and 4” sweep, bullet slider, Driveline Stuff+ of just 80, think there might be something with the pitch’s comparability to the fastball which is doesn’t love. It’s not generating swing miss but small-sample contact quality looks good. He’s throwing it >20% to both righties and lefties. ✂️
He’s also really backed off his right-right changeup usage, down from 21% last year to just 6% this year. To lefties, less fastball (48% last year to 39%) and curveball to allow for new cutter usage.
I heard eno talking to Trevor May on a pod about a month and half ago. They were forcing on fastball ride and how some pitchers who have a lower release angle messes with batters because it’s coming from a low point and coming in at a higher point. This may explain butto maybe??