Joe Ryan's New Sinker. Hunter Brown's Cutter Tweak. Michael Soroka's Changeup Tweak
Joe Ryan, Hunter Brown, Michael Soroka
I decided to scale back spring posts given some inconsistencies in the data I saw and wanting to save some thoughts for when we have more real-game data. Friday AM we’ll be back to daily posts. Can’t wait! For now, here’s a trio of tweaks I’m confident are accurate.
Twins Joe Ryan added a sinker and tweaked his bullet slider. The new sinker is 92 mph with 16” arm-side run from his ultra-low release. I expect this to be a behind-in-count pitch to help cut his four-seam usage, which lingered over 60% for most of last season. His four-seam allowed a .497 xwOBA behind in the count to right-handed hitters last year (not great). It’s comparable in shape to Aaron Nola’s sinker, which had a 100 Stuff+ last season (without Nola’s command).
Ryan’s bullet slider looks similar in shape, but it’s 2.5 mph harder than last season. FanGraphs Stuff+ had it as a 102 last year. This harder version should be in the 110 area this season if that velocity holds. In spring, he’s used this pitch a lot more, again to righties as a way to potentially back off four-seam fastball usage. Over 70% of his home runs came against righties last season. Both these tweaks seem to be with that in mind. I’m comfortable with the hard under on his ~1.35 HR/9 projection. 🚰
Astros Hunter Brown split his 2023 cutter into two pitches. First, a cutter with 6” more vertical break (dropping less) at the same velocity. I think the main reason for this adjustment is his desire to pitch up and inside to left-handed hitters, rather than where his 2023 cutter sat, which was down and inside. Shape comps to Gerrit Cole’s cutter from a higher release, which had a FanGraphs Stuff+ of 106 last season.
Second, he has a new bullet slider at 87 mph. I expect Brown to use it as a deep-count pitch to right-handed hitters, getting off his aggressive curveball usage from last season. This is in the Dylan Cease, Logan Gilbert area of bullet sliders but a tick lower velo. Both those sliders were 120+ FanGraphs Stuff+, Brown’s should be in the 110-115 area. I like both of these tweaks a lot. He’s just working with more pitches to each handedness and they’re both above-average per Stuff+. It should help him cut the HR issues from last season. ✂️
White Sox Michael Soroka made a changeup tweak. The pitch has 7” less vertical break (dropping more) and 2” more arm-side movement than it did last season at a similar velocity, from the same release height. The pitch performed well last season, so the tweak is interesting. Stuff+ grade should increase with the added vertical separation from his fastball. Apart from the changeup tweak, his four-seam, sinker and slider all appear similar in shape to last season. Four-seam to lefties, sinker to righties, but mixes the non-dominant fastball to a given handedness ~15%. Doesn’t appear, at least in spring, that he’s become a more four-seam-focused pitcher.
I don’t have locations, so I’d be interested to see if something has changed there when we get in-season data. I was expecting more changes here based on his spring strikeout rate and hype from White Sox camp. I’m hesitant to buy in, especially with poor spring strike and zone rates. Maybe I’m missing something with how this changeup tweak affects his lefty effectiveness. 🤷♂️